Looking at the weekly Bitcoin chart, we can see that price held support on the 50 week MA (pink circle.) What's interesting about this, is that the only two other times where Bitcoin held support on the 50 week MA, it eventually failed, fell back below it, and dropped to the 200 week MA (in purple.) Now, that isn't an extremely strong indication that the same thing is going to happen again, but it is interesting.
The other interesting thing to note is that BTC has not yet reached a major higher high on the daily chart. In fact, the last major high was printed in October, and it was at about 10550. BTC appears to be trying to form a top, and if that is the case, it will have simply formed a lower high, which would mean that the downtrend is still intact.
However, there are some bullish signals that shouldn't be ignored. One notable bullish signal is on the RIS. We can see that Bitcoin has broken out above the 55 level here. Historically, when BTC has broken above the 55 level on the weekly RSI, and held above it, that has correlated to a bull market. So, that suggests we are in the early stages of a new bull market, but I'm not convinced. A new high and a breakout above the falling black trendline would probably change my mind. Until then, I'm neutral to bearish on Bitcoin.
A failure to hold support on the 50 week would be a sign that BTC is preparing to fall to the 200 week, which is currently around 5400. The 50 week is currently at 8400. With Bitcoin currently at 9600, it wouldn't take much for a retest of the 50 week, which has happened after each major hold of it in the history of Bitcoin.
Also, volume is weak AF right now. As I've said many times, rising price and falling volume is bearish. That has been happening since 2015.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Magic, there may be a serious problem in your volume argument. The volume bar is based on the amount of BTC traded and not the amount of USD traded. The largest volume candle was 3.3M BTC or roughly 700M at the current price. The smallest candle for our current week is at 170k BTC but its worth 1.6B at market value which is 2-3 times larger what it was in 2015. This argument may work well in stocks, but not in environments when value has increased exponentially in such a short time period. If we see BTC reach 1M a coin, the BTC volume will be drastically lower than it is now as the amount that the average person can own drops almost to 0.
Ive been following you for a while and know that your technical analysis is much better than this. Please stop using this fallacy to support a bear case.
mlotis
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@ccillc, Exactly. Here's a chart with USD volumes.
FerroIgnique
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@mlotis, Thanks so much, my brother and I have been going hammers and tongs over this and he's been volume, volume, volume. Do you know if there is a On Balance Volume (USD) EMA?
UnknownUnicorn5836947
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@mlotis, How do you see this? omg that would be such a useful little utility. Is that an indicator?
Ive been following you for a while and know that your technical analysis is much better than this. Please stop using this fallacy to support a bear case.