Trying to keep this as imple as possible and adding perspective.
Bullish:
- Scarce or none bearish presence from the 0.5-1 level - Gargantouan rally springing from that level with convergent volume
Bearish:
- The depth of the downtrends denotes that although the bears are shy but strong when stepping in from the 9-11$ price range.
Any prominet set up here?
Textbook supply & demand set up.
1. Bulky rally with high momentum candles erupting from 0.5-1$ level, validated by volume. 2.Shy but steady retacement to the same level. 3. Whoever bought and cause that rally back in 2020 is buying again and giving us a buy trigger.
We have a logical place where to set a stop loss. 2 profit targets ... woudl just be extra due dilligent with the risk managemet here. Perhaps doubling the emphazis on the position size snce this market seems to be so prone to violent moves.
Rememnber:
1. current candle, which for now is giving us a trigger, is not yet closed (20 left). Be patient.
2. There are no certainties in trading. The price might as well fall and close below support which would give us a sell signal.
The name of the game is not predicting, but instead reacting well, managing risk, find good r/r setups, stay a alive, repeat a zillion times in order to allow the odds to help you out and manage all the emotions that will be begging you to deviate from your plan.
Just adding that I do not expect that a probable movement is as effortless as the upward arrow might suggest. I would expect some selling at the upcoming resistance area (next in purple), however not sufficient to hold an uptrend, always provided that the global market circumstances allow such movement.
@nickfrom718, Hi Nick! From a bullish perspective it is not fantastic that the August candle ended up closing below the 10 EMA.
However, this does not jeopardize the Supply & Demand setup. The price is still trading close to the demand area in purple.Therefore no need to update the analysis for now.
The overall market plays an important role in the price of any stock. In a bear market, a bull run as aggressive as described is not likely. Once the overall conditions become bullish again that path is more likely. Always excluding unforeseeable circumstances! Remember that there are no certainties in trading, just risk management and set ups with slightly higher probabilities of success.
Also, remember that this analysis is performed on the monthly time frame, the success or lack of it from this setup will take months to unfold by definition.
In short, same chart, same set up. Ideally the price would have already broken above the 10 EMA. Set up remains valid. Manage risk please, this is an extremely volatile stock, position size must be used to manage risk!