I am keeping this neutral because i am NOT 100% confident on this sub wave count, given how little data there is to work with. But this peak at $11900 is just the peak of sub wave A, with some room to $12200 as the absolute peak. It's not a very safe position for shorting, but can be an opportunity to add to an existing long position if it dips down to 9.9k. The last bottom we had on yesterday's bounce was around $9250 so this new dip will offer another potential chance to buy in for the "bull trap" to 12.5k (Revised target).
To confirm this dip, we need $11400 to be broken, then $10800. Technical have been bearish for the past few hours, but the bulls kept pushing higher and higher believing this was the rocket to 12.5k. Clearly market don't understand what is the timeline especially after they confused yesterday's bounce at $9250 as the end of wave C correction. I see many taking pride in buying the bottom of their new lambo and how they make a smart decision to put a limit order 10% above the market's expected rate. I can only say, don't cry later if you choose to HODL again.
PS: Like i mentioned in my other ideas, the timeline to 12.5k / 12.8k is over 3-5 days. Price cannot just move up in a straight line, there has to be sub wave within it that goes up and down. Also be on the lookout if we did not bounce at 9.9k and instead break pass 9.5k, panic selling still exist in this confused market.
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That $11400 support line put up a really strong fight. I think it broke down at last, so next test is $10800.
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The timeline for wave A extended, we haven't done this B dip yet and there has been no real progression today, just scalper's market. The major support level and bounce zone remains unchanged.
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The bull trend remains intact on the 5 mins, going bullish again and reversing the short term bearish signs. These are my extended target if it continues to go up. s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/6/6EqzL8x5.png
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This is my last update and my last idea ever posted on tradingview. At this point, I am just very tired and annoyed at the traders / investors here. It's triggering me very badly that majority are so rude and genius at trading in a bull market.
Despite posting ideas, I also do real time analysis to verify trends, entry points and reversal signs. But people mock me on low timeframe, can't ask me the right questions. Kept laughing at my nick, asking me to consult the higher timeframe. We're in a correction mode, we're downtrend overall, we are in a bull trap bounce, we're going sideway in this bounce. What do you want to know? Ask, not insult me.
This is currently a sideway market, and evidently hard to trade in the short term. But I offer aid to tide people through since people are looking for entries and not everyone is a HODL or swing trader. Day traders and scalpers don't like to sit around waiting for days with no profit, that's why we look at small timeframe. But I am sick of explaining and teaching. I'm frankly done, so good luck. Enjoy the chat room and their moon analysis.
What do you know, the original target of dip to 9.9k hit exactly with 100% accuracy lol. What voodoo magic is this. I ensure you guys that its pure coincidence, please don't report me to the police.
Technical indicators are showing confirmation of trend reversal on the 15, 30 and 1 hour after that bounce so we should be on track for that sub C wave up. That is assuming there are no major changes in fundamentals.
Bro just get some rest. We appreciate your work. Thanks
avito1
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you dont think were bouncing of 8.7k... were going below 8k?
GramTooNoob
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@avito1, This chart is a bullish continuation chart, and the market has bounced off 8.7k as reversal bottom 1 and 7.8k as reversal bottom 2, then followed by a new impulse wave 12345 or consolidation triangle. However, because wave 4 did not complete properly, it is a sign that something went wrong with the market. What's even interesting is that, shorts closed, longs opened but long term investors continue to cash out. Signs of a growing bear market instead of a bull market resumption.
I have an extended leg down to 6.9k as my next target for reversal bottom 3. We will bounce there "strongly" and that will tell us the future. But a break of the 7.8k will put us very close to a bear market, so its is a pretty interesting zone. At this point, I am looking forward to a bear market for first half of 2018.
avito1
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@GramTooNoob, thanks (I was aware this was an old chart, but for some reason cant log in on the chat)... I got out of my positions I got in at 8.7k on time... true to predicition broke 8.7k easily... Im gonna redraw my charts and put your information into context.... I have been having an eerie feeling, ever since we broke underneath 9k, that BTC would be losing up to 90% of its ATH value (no TA to back it up)...down to around 2k... kinda like when it dropped from 1000usd to 100usd... and maybe 1-2 years of heavy bear market (there will be plenty of stories about people losing everything, negative mass media coverage till its forgotten)... which if its is the case, then that is going to be very bad for those heavy investments made, particularly for mining... as price would drop beneath production costs (which was an argument for the 6-8k range bottom price, although there have been reports of production cost being usd$60 in Iceland by Genesis as recently as this past November or December)... unless of course they are well aware of this and are considering is as a long term (highly speculative) investment... what do you think is the significance of BTC dropping underneath the 200 EMA on the daily... in theory it should bounce right back over it (is that where you put your 6.9k strong bounce?), or is there another angle you are looking at...
avito1
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@avito1, Finally a good 0.5k below the 200 daily EMA...
GramTooNoob
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@avito1, moving average are really just reference. We have gone under the 200 EMA before and went back up shortly, but if we do stay below (which I am expecting) then its clear that a bear market will take over the bull market.
avito1
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@GramTooNoob, Clearly a bear market atm... nice call on 6.9k, just .2k off... 6.9k was the .62 fib retracement from 18k right? 6.7k seems to me current support, but seems weak... next bounce would be around 5.9-6k (.62 fib retracement from 16k)?