0. The above chart was made in view of the possibility that the four-year cycles of BTC is likely to change to three-year when BTC reaches the 2017 peak before 2020 Halving. If you look at the main chart, you can easily understand. Therefore, the explanation is omitted. This article is not for sell or buy. If you liked this idea, please, 'Thumbs up', 'Follow', 'Comment'~^^
1. the comparison of indicator : 50MA, 100MA, 200MA
2. Current Coin Market Status - Coin Market Cap : $ 325 Billion - Bitcoin Dominance : 62.2% - Volume by National Currencies : USD( 74.8% ), JPY( 14.7.0% ), KRW( 5.8% )
3. The Comparison of Coin Market Cap - Coin Market Cap : $ 325 billion - Stock Market Cap around the world : $ 50 trillion / 0.68% - Korean Stock Market Cap : $ 1760 billion / about 18.5% - Samsung Electronics Cap : $ 230 billoion < Coin Market Cap
4. Futures Expiration date - CME : On the last Friday of every month at 4 pm - CB0E : X
6. Other Long-Term BTC Forecasts - A similarity with the 2015 bottom &Influence of halving
- The rising curve by pattern
- A similarity with the 2015 double bottom
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Comparison : 2018. 11. ~ 2019. 04.
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Long-term trend line, 50MA, Fibonacci 0.168
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bear markets or adjustment? On large frames, It can be seen that the bear markets in 2018 is continuing after rising due to technical rebound in 4K floor, and taking the resistance at Fibonacci 0.618. On my personal basis, If BTC price keep just 9.7K(bottom on July 2) until the next CME expiration date (July 27th), I believe that it will be a -30% adjustment, which was commonplace bullish markets in 2017.
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Large volatility on July CME expiration date after flag pattern
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By 2020, 20K or 7K?
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or Alts season like Dec 2015?
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9.18.(Fed Rate Cut), 9.24.(Bakkt), 9.30.(Wilshire ETF), 10.14(Bitwise ETF), 10.19(VanEck ETF), 11.01(China Digital Currency), ~2020(Fed Further Rate Cut, UK Brexit??)
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Good luck everybody!!
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Nearing the next halving, the emergence of the Golden Cross with 50MA and 100MA is likely to push prices above Fibonacci 0.618 and it will be a strong support level.
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(A Week) Just before completion of the Golden Cross with 50MA and 100MA
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The flow of assets with clear correlation
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1. Bitcoin
2. Total Market Cap
3. Altcoin Market Cap
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4. Dow Jones & Exchange Rate ( Up & Down )
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5. Gold ( 2001 / 2008 / 2020 )
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6. Wilshire 4500 ( Next Fibonacci Level )
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7. Unemployment Rate
8. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
Outlook: Favoring the wave 2 low is in place at $39656.42 and a move to break $52915.84, the wave 1 high is now underway.
Analysis: Yesterday's pullback is behind us, with BTC reaching new recovery highs and trending higher. As the chart above indicates, the wave labels have been raised by one degree, although we're still favoring a third wave advance is in progress. The 51000-54000 range is a target area to complete wave (iii). We'll see if we can fine tune the estimates going forward.
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every bull bear cycle in BTC expands in time. There clear ratios between them. This cycle should be 2000 days, until start Q4 2023. So BTC must correct and take the longer path. When and how it correct must be analyzed carefully. We are still in a corrective structure since ATH 2018.
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it can also mean it will drop back to the red curve and follow its natural 4 year course, not the tether pumped course.
pkb6698
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@nagihatoum, Thanks for comment, I agree with you. I think 4-year-cycle based on the Halving is basic setting, but I thought Why is it so fast, so made two perspectives. I think if history repeat, BTC is able to walk sideways for a long time.