Hello everyone! We have a successful touch of the inverted head and shoulders neckline! But....not so fast!
We also bounced off of the .786 bear retracement. Arguably the last line of defense for the bears. So far, it's holding. We also have hidden bearish divergence in the 4h, and the 6h timeframes that are potentially corroborating a wave 2. Technically, this is still a short until a 4h candle is closed above the previous high at $4,200. There is a H U G E confluence of resistance at this juncture. I do not expect for us to move forward without some extreme resistance.
Immediate bullish target is $4,390. Immediate bearish target is below $3,870.
I am neutral to slightly-bullish. I do not like the fact that we stopped very abruptly at the .786 resistance. I also do not like that some alts took a pretty sizable hit earlier when Bitcoin pumped. I remain unbias in the market, so these are just simply my observations.
Hidden bearish divergence:
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If there is one thing I've learned above all else in this market, it's that if you are feeling euphoric and hopeful, it's time to sell. I do not see this being any different. As a matter of fact, I sold 50% of the alts I have back into BTC for this very reason. I made substantial profit these past few days. Normally speaking, I'd let 'er ride. Not this time.
Stay safe out there people. Remember, these whales will paint the charts however they want to get you to FOMO in.
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What if I told you this post was originally going to be bullish? No joke, it was. Then I started to uncover some hidden signals, so I posted them. Upon reviewing all my reasons to be bias toward one side or the other, the bears came out on top. So my idea went from being very bullish, to slightly bearish, all because of what I DIDN'T see right away. The trend is your friend
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$4,236* We need to create a high, higher than $4,236 or we're going to at minimum test recent support at around $3,800.
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Longs are bearishly diverging on the 1D. With how many shorts have closed, and allllllll these longs opening up, you mean to tell me you'd feel safe longing right now? I wouldn't.
If we get a sudden nudge downwards, this is going to be *bad.*
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This is interesting.
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Interesting but useless fact. On the 2 week, Bitcoin has never had more than 2 green candles in a row, for the entirety of 2018.
Decided to play around with log scale, and from what I see, we haven't bottomed yet on this alone:
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Barts are literally engraved in my mind. For some reason, I keep thinking something like this will end up happening, to catch literally everyone off guard. The price point isn't the focus, keep that in mind.
The mother of all barts?
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Okay, so call it cherry picking if you want but I decided to look at some alts to see if they are corroborating Bitcoin's story. Tron:
Ethereum:
XLM:
ADA:
And my personal favorite market indicator... NANO!
Some of the extremely oversold alts like LTC are doing well and showing no signs of slowing down. Yet other coins that have been rallying well before LTC did, are showing signs of either regular bearish divergence, or hidden bearish divergence in the daily timeframes.
Normally I wouldn't say that this has too much weight, but Bitcoin as well is showing hidden bearish divergence.
Nano is my favorite alt to gauge sentiment. For some reason, Nano is so closely correlated with BTC's movements, that you can fairly accurately predict whether a pump in Bitcoin is legit or not.
Nano barely made a peep while Bitcoin was rallying. Call me bias or call me crazy, but I don't think that is a good sign. At all.
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Right before our massive drop:
Now:
The next few days will be pivotal. That's all from me for a while, GL everyone! Let me know what you think in the comments below.
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Bitcoin quietly breaking through a key support
This is the major bullish trendline. Apologies for the sloppy chart. This is my daytrading chart ;)
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Any time now..
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Bitcoin has so far been holding the major bullish trendline, as well as the .236. Under normal circumstances, I would say Bitcoin is about to make a very serious move upwards. That last rejection however on the 4H confirms my suspicion that the bears are now back out to play. My best guess is that Bitcoin must make a move within the next few days to the upside so the market is going to get tired of waiting.
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That rejection on the 4h was stiff. It was also a rejection at the neckline. The last 4h candle volume was pretty sizeable, and even after that much volume, Bitcoin still failed to break through to the upside. This is some very major resistance that I highly doubt we get through.
Just remember, this is still a short until a close above $4,236 - which is increasingly looking unlikely. GL!
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Good news is, less than 2d for a decision! Major bullish trendline meets global bearish trendline aka neckline of IHS!
I'd be very careful right now. People are too excited and the majority thinks we’ve already hit the bottom so BTC can now moon to 5k or 6k. BTC Longs have increased in recent days and have reached a very high and critical level. The small 7% price rise we've seen today only means more profit for bears if they push down the BTC price to the levels you mentioned. The biggest attack potential for bears may be tomorrow at 10 UTC, as Bitfinex will go offline for 3 to 7 hours due to a maintenance. Imagine what happens if in the meantime bears squeeze down the price by 500-1000$ and then Bitfinex goes online again. Wouldn't it end in a mass liquidation of all those longs? Curious about other opinions.
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@Plan2B, I hope and pray Bitcoin gets absolutely destroyed tomorrow. The permabulls on Reddit are extremely cocky and massively downvoting anything that doesn't fit the bullish agenda.
Remaining objective in this market and sharing my views has caused quite a bit of negativity towards me. It's pathetic.
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@mc_peewee, Yes, I’d love to see that happen, too. Those people don’t respect anything. Not the market, not the trend, not other opinions. They still think it’s Dec 2017. Hopefully they’ll learn the hard way.
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@Plan2B, bears would be more smart to let this rise to 5.5 to 6k then crush it down as selling pressure got exhausted from the last capitulation. It's going to be hard to break 3k if bears come in full attack mode at current levels as selling will get exhausted again.
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@mc_peewee agreed on your latest analysis that market will get impatient in the next 48 hours. But for me all signs are still very bullish. I don't believe there are enough bulls to take on the risk at 4k level. Not enough meat on the bone. They'll wait for 5.5k before putting in a decent attack is my guess.
I do agree the 23.6 is an important support for this bull flag. I'm expecting a double bounce off it before scaling to test the all important $4,250 level. Bulls are still in control on the short term unless 3.5k fails.
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I meant to say there aren't enough bears to take much risk on 4k level.
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@BitcoinBobby, I am secretly bullish. But to remain objective, I am attempting to convince myself that this rally isn't legit. So far, it does look *very* good for the bulls I will admit. Secretly, I want Bitcoin to go up. Big time. Especially considering I have $80 riding in alts xD
BUTTTTTTTTTT I also want Bitcoin to follow the indicators. The charts look amazing, the indicators however do not. We'll see!