This is a comparison of the bull cycles from 2013, 2017 and 2021. I just overlaid them on top of each other, copying the performance since the halving date.
I think that would be a bit misleading. We are between 2013 and 2017 but closer to 2017. If we were 2013, the bull market would be over in 35-40 days. I think we are like 2017 + institutional money. Normally the ROI would need to follow rule of diminishing returns but maybe this cycle is the exception due to the instituıtional money.
jfromnash
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if there's a way to average the percentage of the 3 you laid out should give a better probability??