On this 1W analysis we see Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) amazing symmetry through its historic Cycles. A symmetry which upto this date, is holding and we will explain why right away.
Before we begin, note that the current study can be used in combination with our legendary Golden 51%-49% Ratio publications shown below:
** Three Cycle Phases ** Now as to the cyclical symmetry. The chart classifies each grand Cycle into three phases:
a) The Bear Phase (red), which starts at the top of the previous Cycle and ends on its bottom. The price breaks below the 1W MA50 during that phase.
b) The Accumulation Phase (blue), which continues where Bear left off and is when investors buy for the long-term following the market bottom. The price breaks above the 1W MA50 during that phase.
c) The Bull Phase (green), which starts after the Halving event (orange vertical line) and ends on the new Cycle top. The price never closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA50 during that phase.
** The Symmetry ** As you can realize just on first glance, the Phases along the Cycles are on an amazing symmetry. The Bear Phases has so far been 59 weeks (413 days), 52 weeks (364 days) and the most recent 58 weeks (406 days) respectively. The Accumulation Phases have been 77 weeks (539 days) and 73 weeks (511 days) respectively. The Bull Phases have been 75 weeks (525 days) and 79 weeks (553 days) respectively.
The current Accumulation Phase will be 71 weeks (497 days) by the time of the Halving, which is remarkably along the lines of the previous 2. As for the new Bull Phase after the Halving, we could assume a minimum duration of 75 weeks (525 days) as in 2016 - 2017.
** Fibonacci role on the Halving date ** The key at the moment as we approach the upcoming Halving in April, are the Fibonacci retracement levels. During the previous two Halvings, BTC had already reached the 0.786 Fib once and at the time of the Halving was around the 0.618 Fib, which is basically the current price levels within 39000-40000. The 1W MA50 is about to touch the 0.5 Fib level which is around 33000 and technically, based on this model, is as low as the correction can extend to.
Technically we should be expecting price levels around 40k as we enter April, which of course doesn't dismiss the possibility of another run to 50k earlier. In conclusion, assuming the 1W MA50 is the new long-term Support from now on, every monthly correction, should technically be a buy opportunity as we head into the Bull Phase.
But what do you think about this Cycle mapping? Do you expect history to continue to repeat itself? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
I think Bitcoin is in a parabolic phase and the chart will soon look exactly like Turkey's BTC to LIRA chart. Max pain is straight up. Everyone has already dismissed the ETF stuff because it didnt go up right away. Thats the biggest mistake. I think this bull run will actually be extremely fast and very large price movements to the upside. What better way to leave the majority out of the market who are bearish on the sidelines right now than a 50k candle and then another one etc. Im not sure many actually grasp the fact that this is not a normal everyday ETF. This is a spot Bitcoin ETF on an asset that has a fixed supply. There has never been anything like this in our history because we've never had any asset with a fixed supply before. The way Bitcoin is going to appreciate in value in so different than most think. Once this thing catches fire itll shoot into the millions so fast no one will be able to get in and the 40k they sold for will only buy mere crumbs and thats the plan. The market cap of Bitcoin right now is damn peanuts, its Bill Gates and a couple buddies on the weekend. This is the least expected move, no one would ever expect it to go straight up like that and then bam in a couple weeks a month Bitcoin costs a million bucks. This is an institutional, billionaire, multi millionaire bullrun. The past runs were just your average Joe or middle class Mike buying in which is a drop in the bucket compared to what is coming. Oh and dont forget about the rest of the world like the oil tycoons in the middle east. A cleric just wrote a Fatwa stating that Bitcoin is no longer Haram and is accepted in Islam or something to that note. I dont know exactly how this is going to go but its not going to go how everyone expects that is for sure. No chart or analyst can predict whats to come for such a volatile asset with such a small market cap and gaining popularity at an extremely fast pace with the deepest pockets in the world.
Bylo-Selhi
⋅
@Bitgolder Gold is also an asset with a finite supply.
Bitgolder
⋅
@Bylo-Selhi, Gold may not be infinite but all we would have to do is double the amount of miners to double the production of gold. Cant do that with Bitcoin. Finite is not the right word to use with Bitcoin, but rather Fixed supply. No other asset on the planet has a fixed supply.
JalilRafieefard
⋅
@Bitgolder, Bitcoin is negative due to the continued bearish policy of the US government in 2024 and will decrease to around $20,000.
Bitgolder
⋅
@JalilRafieefard, US Government is about to go into hyperinflation and the world needs a place to park their wealth.
JalilRafieefard
⋅
@Bitgolder, I agree with you about hyperinflation. But at first, the bearish policies will be followed by a sharp drop in prices, and then gold and bitcoin will be the places of wealth park. Please read this analysis
Bylo-Selhi
⋅
@Bitgolder yws but that way we would deplete gold deposits twice as soon and there's no way to produce more so yeah that is a difference between the two but that's the only difference. You guys are both presuming the btc cycle rules are to be broken, and that is a pretty bold statement which is yet to be conirmed. I do like your thesis that max pain is up only, very interesting. I am currently 70% invested with 30% waiting to see what happens, so i'm ready for any scenario and am sleeping tight
JalilRafieefard
⋅
@Bylo-Selhi, It's great that you are prepared and looking ahead. I think the BTC growth cycle will break like it has in the past and as you said it is very bold.
NaturalPatterns
⋅
also cool to see it always has 1 bounce on your 1wMa50
JalilRafieefard
⋅
Your idea of analyzing how bitcoin moves in the halving timeframe is very interesting in its own right. But consider that the growth of Bitcoin after each halving is less than the growth of the previous halving. This is how I personally see the movement of Bitcoin in the short and long term.