BITCOIN vs S&P500 Is the Bear Cycle correlation a myth?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has entered a new Bear Cycle while the stock markets remain near their All Time Highs (ATH). The general notion is that when BTC starts a Cycle (either Bull or Bear), the stock market, which on this particular analysis is the S&P500 (blue trend-line) follows suit. But how much truth is in it?

Here we see those Bear Cycles since 2011. As you can see in 2011 and 2022 both BTC and the S&P500 dropped around the same time. In 2018 even though both started falling, the S&P500 recovered shortly after, even made new ATH but dropped again remaining volatile. On the other hand in 2014, the S&P500 kept rising, even though BTC was in a Bear Cycle.

As a result, the above notion isn't 100% accurate, not entirely a 'myth' but for sure not a certainty. We even plotted all previous S&P500 sequences during BTC's Bear Cycle, on today's Cycle and as you can see the worst case scenario based on that is a 2022 type correction (grey fractal), which would bring the index back to the April 2025 lows. Bitcoin will most likely have a typical Bear Cycle, especially with the last two (2022 and 2018) being almost identical.

So do you think the Bear Cycle correlation is a myth or not? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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