Hello cryptofolks, What's going on? In my last published trading idea provided below, I said that we are patiently waiting for the last major dip of bitcoin. And I strongly believe based on the analysis that I created, that last major dip might fall in the month of December 2018- January 2019 breaking out our major support line which is the $6,000.00 range making it a strong resistance as we enter in the accumulation stage. As we can see, the fake breakout on the upper Descending triangle line happened last November 2014 and it did happen again this time October 2018. After the November 2014 fake breakout, it did break the support line lying on the $300.00 and go down to the lowest low of 2014 which priced at $180.00. As the fake breakout happened again this time, we might also fall to the lower lows of 2018 breaking the major support line as we enter the accumulation stage until December 2018. History always repeats itself. Not pure Identical as the last time but the direction pointing us correlates to what we are heading now. No Voluminous Technical analysis on this point in time. Just a simple comparison of Technicalities between 2013-2014 Historical Price Data and 201-2018 Historical Price Data. Please don't hesitate to leave a comment below if you have any suggestions, queries, and other views on this bitcoin price analysis. Thank You and Have a good day!
تعليق
⋅
November 2018 SEC ETF Decision: Most Probably it will be delayed until next year that will cause BTC to go down even further.
December 2018: Bakkt is speculated to jump into crypto space but most certainly it will not happening this year. And that will cause a lot of disappointment and another sell off maybe which is to be done by the whales followed by the herd. most miners would have to shut off their mining equipments and sell every bitcoins that they have mined in order to cover some of their losses. Another thing is that lightning network for bitcoin is not going to be ready yet this year.
These are the fundamentals I'm Taking into considerations why bitcoin could draw its price back to what it did on its history.
تعليق
⋅
Just a quick Fundamental Update, November 05, 2018 is the date where the decision of SEC must takes place. But another delay would be probable and no ETF will be approved within this year.
How about Bakkt on December? will Bakkt affect the price of bitcoin on December 12, 2018? Most of retail investor says yes. This will be the start of Major bull run and bitcoin will go to the moon like 2017 does. BLAH BLAH BLAH..
In My Opinion? It will not affect the price, and it will go down lower and lower because of disappoinments until it break down the 6k Major Support line and will go deeper and deeper as the Bitcoin/ Cryptocurrency Disbelief stage occurs.
Why it will not affect the price? Bakkt will be one of the BIGGEST investors in bitcoin history. why it will not fluctuate as soon as Bakkt jumps in by December?
Simple. They will use OTC Market as a way to buy and sell Bitcoin. OTC is a peer to peer transaction and it only happens on a close market where the supply of the broker (BAKKT) Matters and not the overall supply in the open market to which in coinparketcap .com.
تعليق
⋅
The 6k MAjor Support line has been broken. We are undergoing to our phase 3 which is the final break out in bitcoin before entering the accumulation stage. Hope this would convince you guys that history will be going to repeat itself as we have in 2014. ;)
تعليق
⋅
We're Currently waiting for a reversal candle confirmation. It will be more likely to rebound on the 6k major resistance line after we bottomed out on 3.5k - 3k mark. Clue on that reversal? Wait for the green candle to go higher than 2-3 previous candles and buy the dip. that will be the sign of sudden bear reversal. Then sell at 5700-6k mark
The 2014-2015 comparison is really starting to get old. If the BTC-dominance still was 80-95 percent of the total market cap like back in the days, you could make a case. But it's not anymore. Repeating myself ==> the entire cryptospace dropped by 80 percent from ATH during 2014-2015 bear market, and the same number during the present bear market is approximately the same (78 percent). This has been, and is, a speculative market where investors and traders invest in all kinds of coins and tokens to profit from. During the bear market in 2014-2015 people were mainly trading BTC. Today, investors don't care whether they profit from BTC or altcoins which reflect itself in the distribution of market shares.
By solely looking at BTC (and predicting 3-4k), the 2014-2015 comparison would be flawed. A 3-4k BTC would mean that the entire crypto-market would drop by >=90% from ATH, which will make the bear market in 2014-2015 a lightweight compared to the one you are predicting. People need to start recognize that the cryptocurrency market is not just BTC anymore - you're actually excluding the other half of the data, altcoins.
If you want to make another comparison to the 2014-2015-period, the cost of mining BTC (according to ) was about 180 dollars, and BTC bottomed out at about 160 dollars (shot right up again >200 dollars). The same cost for mining BTC today, using the same calculations as back then, is about 6000 dollars.
And remember, BTC usually trending down no more than 5-6 months during bear markets or larger corrections before consolidating or slowly moving up again. The 2014-2015-period was the only time BTC underwent a downward-movement for >1 year. I suspect the Mt.Gox-circus did have an effect for that to happen.
rexmentula
⋅
*according to Fundstrat
steve43214
⋅
@rexmentula, Maybe its old but all the experts on the other end of the spectrum, prediction immediate mooning of BTC are even more annoying. Fact is BTC needs to dip at next level of support (whatever it may be) then maybe retest. Based on past market history this is the only way it moves.
There maybe more of market share in alts, but for the most part its a shit show. BTC is king for now at least, nothing else come close, BTC dictates movement of all the others.
All the great experts are hopping BTC acts like the shit coins,
rexmentula
⋅
@steve43214, and since when did all these "experts" have it 100 percent correct? By having a master degree in economics and by having a "fair amount" of analytic skills, I consider myself an "expert" too. What all these other experts doing would be a case for slaughter in a master thesis. They simply look at the bear market in 2014-2015, and expect that BTC would behave the same way - without considering other extremely important factors in the equation such as change in the market shares and how the price-movement of BTC behaved before the bubble popped compared to previous years. In addition there are some who believe that the only comparable event that matters is the bear market in 2014-2015, and that everything before that event is just noise. This is called being selection biased, and would also be a case for the slaughterhouse.
You can say that the altcoins are a shit show but that's your personal opinion - not the market (which value the altcoins half of that of BTC).
I don't totally exclude the possibility that BTC may break the 5.7-6k level, however, this is (and has become with time) very unlikely due to previous repeating patterns. BTC usually bottoms out a level above previous ATH - which in our case is approx 5k in september 2017. Only once has BTC revisited previous ATH, and that was during the bear market in 2014-2015. Now, the way I see it, if BTC were to visit 5k during the present bear market it should've done it before. Since it has "failed" to do so, and in the meantime the altcoins has managed to capitulate (dragging the entire cryptocurrency market down by 78 percent from ATH), it just getting more and more unlikely that BTC will follow the same pattern.
Look at it this way: During the bear market, BTC has actually shown strength by having increased dominance by 20 percentage points.
CryptoJMA
⋅
@rexmentula, Hey bro, Convinced enough to my predictions? ;) Hoping you did not lost massive amount of money on that. if you do, then just wait till for a rebound that I just updated in my prediction. :)
Poukitoun
⋅
@rexmentula, exactly! However I think the deep and long bear market of 2014-2015 was mostly due to the huge rise that occurred just before
SebastianofMoon
⋅
Good analysis and nicely observed ! The timing could align well, I also come to the conclusion that the low might be around january at around 3k, then 6 months of sideways, maybe another low at the same level, and then towards the end of 2019, starting the next phase of bullrun.
AG0795
⋅
price is flat here. it wasn't in 2014.
DSltz
⋅
There is about 2million plus on the order books starting at the support line of $6000-$5800. I think that support line is tough, to break however, I do take your advise as a gain of salt. Thanks!
CryptoJMA
⋅
@Icschultz23, If the whales manipulated again the price and break the major support line to be able for them to position on the lowest low, the herd/retail traders will follow and that will cause a major sell-off, FUD Everywhere, and bitcoin disbelief. And I think that's what many institutions eyeing for bitcoin are waiting for. They are waiting for the herd to leave the crypto space before positioning.
By solely looking at BTC (and predicting 3-4k), the 2014-2015 comparison would be flawed. A 3-4k BTC would mean that the entire crypto-market would drop by >=90% from ATH, which will make the bear market in 2014-2015 a lightweight compared to the one you are predicting. People need to start recognize that the cryptocurrency market is not just BTC anymore - you're actually excluding the other half of the data, altcoins.
If you want to make another comparison to the 2014-2015-period, the cost of mining BTC (according to ) was about 180 dollars, and BTC bottomed out at about 160 dollars (shot right up again >200 dollars). The same cost for mining BTC today, using the same calculations as back then, is about 6000 dollars.
And remember, BTC usually trending down no more than 5-6 months during bear markets or larger corrections before consolidating or slowly moving up again. The 2014-2015-period was the only time BTC underwent a downward-movement for >1 year. I suspect the Mt.Gox-circus did have an effect for that to happen.