I would be surprised if this trend line holds to be honest. However it will surely give an decent bounce. not as high as before(12k). but if it does bounce it will likely bounce to 8,800 - 9,500 before further movement down. In bear markets weaker and weaker bounces of the trend line tend to reveal themselves. A double bottom now would not signal a cycle reversal unless we break previous high of 11,800. I think we need to hit 5,000 or 3,000 to reverse the cycle. A double bottom or higher bottom will only be temporary in my opinion. Still since we closed at 11,400 and have stayed in fiat since, we can take the opportunity of the bounce for a quick scalp if it presents itself. I expect panic in the next few days. Be prepared, dinner is being served up.
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We just broke the previous low. Look for panic tomorrow and or next few days. we will watch for price action around 6700 but more liklely is a double bottom retest or break. I will keep my entries as up to date as possible. However if i am not on trading view at the time we are looking for reversal zones around 6700, 6000, 5000, 4400. The more this bear season drags out the more likely 3000 will be. Still there will be scalp opportunities on the way there. Keep an eye out on the volume on to confirm revesal. Volume should be close or above previous 6k price volume. Best of luck
Hi there, i saw this...and with the current price where we are at right now...if it doesn't get to the 9500, it will go into the downstream channel again? what are your thoughts on that? thank you so much for your thoughts.
ecicic
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@aikitran, Hi aikitran. Thanks for the comment. I do not believe we will go back in the downstream channel because at this point it is becoming i feel like the fall required would be to steep. Unless we have some majorly bearish event take place i do not see this outcome as a likely possibility. Just because we cannot stay in one down trend channel forever doesnt mean that the down trend is over though. I feel cautiously optimistic about the current situation short term, but my feelings are not relevant. Since we are in a down trend especially, i will limit my risk and preserve my capital. We play the long term game and i will let the market decide which way it wants to go before allocating any more/less capital. Hope this helped
aikitran
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@ecicic, thank you, yes it does. i'm trying to see a good entry position but there's not been a retrace for a long and a bit uncertain about the 9500 part as well. Thanks for your input!
ecicic
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@aikitran, A simple tip for situation like this is to allocate a very small part of your capital to hedge against further upward movement. Perhaps 1% or something you dont mind losing. If it goes up you will still make something, however if your feelings are that it will go down, and it produces a higher low you can buy at a lower price upon confirmation of a reversal. If we place a lower low, you still managed your risk well and are ready to capitalize upon reversal.