In the last days and weeks overall fear indicators showing that bets and fears on a shortime drop of global stockmarkets had been rising dramatically.
The main reasons - and all are geopolitics:
- Trumps tradewars on China, NAFTA, Europe - Geopolitical tensions on Syria, North Korea, Russia - Upcomming First round of election in France
What traders missed: Stockmarkets "underlying" - Global economic Data. This data and upcomming earnings still comming in above expectations. In the next tradingdays better than expected economic data will meet fears wich might be much overdone. Once more.
APR 17 2017 - China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst China has more options to press North Korea than people think, says former CIA China analyst
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APR 17 2017 - Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2010 and its stocks are flying high
APR 18 2017: French Election remains unpredictable. Todays latest polls: Macron 23,5% LePen 22,5% Fillon 19,5% Melenchon 19%. Risks are now equal both for long and short side.
Volatility drop could cause a blow off in European stockmarkets. The UK Election could be the trigger of this blow of. The final results of the French Parlamentary Election could end this momentum by sell the facts.
Tonight after hours trading anticipating a huge drop in volatility within the next 24-72 hours.
Markets should go straight up.
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VIX is anticipating a further drop in volatility. This would mean likely the last leg to the upside before a larger consolidation for all global stockmarkets might occur.
VIX probably on the path for the lowest numbers in stockmarkets history.
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VSTOXX and VIX showing same picture: Final volatility drop should indicate final stockmarket blow off bevor a new downtrend occurs.
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Trade closed. VIX made a new low today not seen since 1993. Same time VSTOXX didn't drop like expected. Trade is closed on profit taking.
VSTOXX:
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VIX: Today new low not seen since 1993
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Shortposition was closed in the meantime but not updated here. Additional informations here:
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VSTOXX: 20,81% spike to the upside on August 21 2017.