Last night, we posted about the potential for a leading diagonal on the EURUSD (see the notes at the bottom of “EUR Analysis Prior to Greece Referendum Vote”). The pair has continued to play that tune which implies:
• A tradable low is in place at 1.0915 which coincides with scenario #2 in the “EUR Analysis Prior to Greece Referendum Vote” (see green notes on the original chart) • The 1.0915 ended 4 degrees of trend and likely kicks off a green circle ‘c’ wave higher which subdivides into 5 waves • Look for a 50-78% retracement on the diagonal to time a long entry (1.0960-1.1020) • Target 1.1250 and 1.1470 • If prices break above 1.1125 BEFORE hitting the retracement zone of 1.0960-1.1020, then consider a breakout long trade
A print at 1.0914 means this analysis is incorrect so we have the opportunity for a good risk to reward ratio long trade.
Also, SSI continues to be weighed towards sellers at -1.69. Sentiment can be used as a contrarian signal which suggests prices may rise. These traders who are short become future supply of buyers as they are already committed to their position.
Additionally, with the analysis posted yesterday on the USDCAD (bullish), this may open the door to consider long EURCAD. EURJPY may have some bullish juice in it too. I’ll post those if any clean EW counts or RR ratio trades can be identified.
Though this post is written to the tune of the higher probability leading diagonal scenario. Other scenarios do exist. I have listed the top 4 as I see them.
For those Elliotticians, what other scenarios are you considering on EURUSD?
Nice! after the leading diagonal we had a perfect zigzag to enter al the 0.61 fib retracement
JWagnerFXTrader
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It was a clean retracement for sure.
What do you think FullTimeProTrader...gap up on wave 3 of 3? Or, just a simple A-B-C higher from July 7?
FullTimeTrader
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I expect a gap up to complete an A-B-C based on the idea we are within a triangle
IvanLabrie
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3 of C can gap up I guess. C might be like a beam.
Either way, it'll be clear on Sunday.
I posted an NZDUSD chart, would like your input guys:
rick.alter.35
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nice but the triangle has ace trendline upside down tho
RooshanTrendAnalyst
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can we take buy entry now?
JWagnerFXTrader
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Well, that is up to you. The x-wave triangle interpretation suggests and eventual move above 1.14. However, we may still only be in the 'd' leg of the triangle, so more sloshing around is called for under that interpretation. Therefore, for the time being, one could look for entries in the 1.095-1.1025 zone and target 1.12.
IvanLabrie
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Or just trade other less sluggish pairs.
JWagnerFXTrader
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Indeed! It boils down to risk to reward ratios...where do you get the better opportunities. Right now, it seems xxxJPY has been the broad based mover for the past couple days.
IvanLabrie
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Yes, looking to go long there.
I'm long NZDUSD for a 4h C wave up.