IDEA 4: EUR/USD EVENING STAR 2/15/23

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The daily chart has just completed a text evening star formation which is bearish. The intersection of the uptrend line and the next FOMC rate decision is speculative but seems to correspond roughly with the monthly support zone.
I'm short at 1.0714 with a target at 1.0490. I don't think there is anything fundamental that will change the trajectory of EUR/USD down unless Euro zone CPI next week brings a major surprise.
The retail sales print his morning has affirmed that the US economy is robust despite the rate hikes. The major indices all gained today which suggests that the market has become comfortable with the prospect of future hikes.
A close above 1.0802 invalidates this idea and a close below 1.0654 will confirm the trade.

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ملاحظة

Covered my short for 48 pip profit after that strong bounce off support. But beware of a bull trap...

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ملاحظة

The monthly chart has played out to the pip and found support at 1.05162. However, I think it is wise to wait for the potential USA and ECB bank contagion to play out first. With the ECB on tap tonight and the FED next week, we are in for a bumpy ride.
It would appear that there is a degree of safe haven flows int USD because the Dollar index has bounced off the 103.46 level for the third day in a row.
The JPY is of course the ultimate recipient of safe have flows.