On the 4-hour chart, the upward trend is developing within the first wave (1) of the higher level. Now the fifth wave of the lower level v of 5 of (1), within which the downward correction is developing as a fourth wave (iv) of v, is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the level of 1.2135. The level of 1.2346 is critical for this scenario.
Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant below the level of 1.2346 with the target at 1.2135.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2346 will let the pair grow to the level of 1.2480.
Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL Entry Point 1.2312 Take Profit 1.2135 Stop Loss 1.2375 Key Levels 1.2135, 1.2346, 1.2480 Alternative scenario Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 1.2350 Take Profit 1.2480 Stop Loss 1.2290 Key Levels 1.2135, 1.2346, 1.2480