Just Short EURUSD - Draghi really dissapointed
Very quick and intuitive short. As I was typing my review of the EURAUD trade, and reviewing Draghi speech, the Short idea pops up and I went right in as it broke through 1.2 like a piece of cake. I put wide stop though..who knows it may retrace.
تعليق:
Just jump the gun again here but given the strength of the crash and somewhat weak pull back so far I would still hold this trade, just hope that my stop is far enough to provide some staying power.
تعليق:
The EURUSD traded higher towards end of US session last night, my guess is they are front run a Dovish comment from Dudley. Now that he actually made a Hawkish comment and the market barely budge, actually it went the other way is puzzling me. Is the market thinking that he is bluffing or that maybe his vote is not going to change the Fed's Dovish stance.
Nevertheless, the price action agrees that EURUSD should slide higher and put me in an odd situation: I still believe there is a lot of room for EUR to fall, however Fed does have all the reason to be Dovish: Trump and his political fiasco, the double hurricanes and its relief program to be voted in Congress. Let's just say I think ECB and Fed is playing a who-can-be-more-Dovish game.
In term of trade management I'm in a bit of dilemma too. The price has pulled back and retail crowd is net short (I typically don't like going along with retail sentiment) the thing is fundamentally I believe EURUSD should be closer to 1.19 rather than 1.21 so I can increase (if my current SL not hit) or renew bet (if I'm taken out here).
To be consistent with my risk management tenet to not averaging down on a losing position, I think I prefer option 1 i.e. if I'm not taken out by today and price action becomes a bit more accomodating or when retail crowd turns net long for example I'm in then. Or if I'm out, that's good too, meaning I'm back to square-one, getting ready for key event next week: US' CPI.
Sidenote: On the other hand, I could have traded pair that has clear picture like EURCAD
Nevertheless, the price action agrees that EURUSD should slide higher and put me in an odd situation: I still believe there is a lot of room for EUR to fall, however Fed does have all the reason to be Dovish: Trump and his political fiasco, the double hurricanes and its relief program to be voted in Congress. Let's just say I think ECB and Fed is playing a who-can-be-more-Dovish game.
In term of trade management I'm in a bit of dilemma too. The price has pulled back and retail crowd is net short (I typically don't like going along with retail sentiment) the thing is fundamentally I believe EURUSD should be closer to 1.19 rather than 1.21 so I can increase (if my current SL not hit) or renew bet (if I'm taken out here).
To be consistent with my risk management tenet to not averaging down on a losing position, I think I prefer option 1 i.e. if I'm not taken out by today and price action becomes a bit more accomodating or when retail crowd turns net long for example I'm in then. Or if I'm out, that's good too, meaning I'm back to square-one, getting ready for key event next week: US' CPI.
Sidenote: On the other hand, I could have traded pair that has clear picture like EURCAD
تعليق:
I'm out, my stupidity has been offcially proven.
This definitely prompts me to make a proper checklist of things I need to look for before taking any trade.
"There is always the next one" is a motto to live by
This definitely prompts me to make a proper checklist of things I need to look for before taking any trade.
"There is always the next one" is a motto to live by