The spread between German Bunds and France or Italian Goverment Bonds are rising again.
On Monday, April 11th 2017 Goldman Sachs recommends a market bet as elections loom in France.
"We would expect French bond spreads (and yields) to come under upward pressure if the first round of the Presidential election were to result in a strong showing of anti-establishment parties," Goldman said in a note to clients.
This Chart is showing the bets against Europe via IT10Y-DE10Y. Traders might notice hat the spread now is higher than before December 4h 2016 (Renzi Constitutional Referendum.
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APR 11 2017- France's presidential election is rapidly approaching, and Goldman Sachs is telling investors to stay cautious.
The investment banking giant recommended Monday that investors short French bond futures expiring in June ahead of the contest, amid the possibility that anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen or Jean-Luc Melenchon could stun pollsters with a win. Political polling recently has been a terrible predictor of actual election results, internationally. Polls heading into last year's Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential election were mostly wrong, causing shockwaves across financial markets. In France, investors predict that a Le Pen or Melenchon victory would likewise send markets into a frenzy. Quote: cnbc.com/2017/04/10/goldman-sachs-recommends-a-market-bet-as-elections-loom-in-france.html
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APR 12 2017: Spread rising today by 11,69% (!). As mentioned in the past weeks and month: There are huge Billion-Euro bets against Europe outstanding now.
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APR 12 2017 - This aren´t peanuts. This are multi billion Euro or Dollar bets aganist Europe based on fears and probably not precise research about the upcomming France election. The main argument is that "polls had been wrong" before the Brexit and the US-Election.