read this:
fortune.com/2020/09/...-coffee-crops-prices
www.iandmsmith.com/n...e-market-report-1053
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...isory/ensodisc.shtml
if a strong 'la nina' weather event will happen coffee can maybe cross some resistances at 170 and ~200. The prediction is likely that this weather phenomenon will happen! Together with the weak coming crop cycle 2021 we will see a under-supply for the coming years - even if at the moment we have an oversupply of 5 mln bags -because of good crop cycle 2020 and less consumption because of covid19). In my opinion i would be careful with shorting KC1.
fortune.com/2020/09/...-coffee-crops-prices
www.iandmsmith.com/n...e-market-report-1053
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...isory/ensodisc.shtml
if a strong 'la nina' weather event will happen coffee can maybe cross some resistances at 170 and ~200. The prediction is likely that this weather phenomenon will happen! Together with the weak coming crop cycle 2021 we will see a under-supply for the coming years - even if at the moment we have an oversupply of 5 mln bags -because of good crop cycle 2020 and less consumption because of covid19). In my opinion i would be careful with shorting KC1.
تم فتح الصفقة:
CONCERN
Drought could result in loss of more than 6 million bags of coffee
Even with the return of rains in the coffee regions, which helps in the quality of flowering, the volume is still not enough to reverse the impacts of water scarcity on the soil, shows a report made by Itaú BBA Agribusiness Consulting.
The National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), together with the Procafé Foundation, had already been alerting coffee farmers about the irreversible damage to crops next year. The area that draws the most attention is the south of Minas Gerais, responsible for 35% of the Arabica coffee area in Brazil. In the Cerrado of Minas Gerais, the water condition is less critical, more worrying.
Coffee growers can expect 20% drop in production this year
The producers are keeping an eye on the losses, because in addition to the absence of water, the excess heat also affected the coffee plantations. For the Brazilian harvest 2021/22, farmers and traders focusing on Arabica coffee can expect a 20% drop in production this year. The current scenario suggests a global deficit for next year that could reach 1.7 billion bags.
source: www.canalrural.com.b...es-de-sacas-de-cafe/
Drought could result in loss of more than 6 million bags of coffee
Even with the return of rains in the coffee regions, which helps in the quality of flowering, the volume is still not enough to reverse the impacts of water scarcity on the soil, shows a report made by Itaú BBA Agribusiness Consulting.
The National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), together with the Procafé Foundation, had already been alerting coffee farmers about the irreversible damage to crops next year. The area that draws the most attention is the south of Minas Gerais, responsible for 35% of the Arabica coffee area in Brazil. In the Cerrado of Minas Gerais, the water condition is less critical, more worrying.
Coffee growers can expect 20% drop in production this year
The producers are keeping an eye on the losses, because in addition to the absence of water, the excess heat also affected the coffee plantations. For the Brazilian harvest 2021/22, farmers and traders focusing on Arabica coffee can expect a 20% drop in production this year. The current scenario suggests a global deficit for next year that could reach 1.7 billion bags.
source: www.canalrural.com.b...es-de-sacas-de-cafe/
تم فتح الصفقة:
*should mean 1,7 million bags NOT billion
i did my own calculation and in my opinion we would see a loss of 8 million bags of coffee because of drought, which means a global deficit of 3.7 million bags - the future will tell us more
i did my own calculation and in my opinion we would see a loss of 8 million bags of coffee because of drought, which means a global deficit of 3.7 million bags - the future will tell us more
تم فتح الصفقة:
Brazilian coffee grower points to the government to break 40% of the arabica crop in 2021
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - The Brazilian Coffee Growers Association (Sincal) sent a letter to authorities like Minister Tereza Cristina on Friday pointing to a 40% drop in the country's 2021 Arabica coffee crop in relation to production potential for the period, citing a historical drought and high temperatures in crops.
Experts have been reporting for a few weeks these climate problems, which affected the flowering and led to pruning in many coffee plantations. But the association's projection points to a more drastic problem for the harvest of the Arabica variety, which represents about 75% of coffee production in Brazil, the largest global producer and exporter.
The 2021 harvest would already be the year of low productivity in the biennial cycle of this type of grain, which combines large and small harvests.
But the climate is aggravating, said Sincal, considering the possibility that arabica production may not even reach 20 million bags, versus 47.38 million bags in 2020, a year of high productivity in the cycle that was very close to the record 2018, according to data from the National Supply Company (Conab). .......
source: br.reuters.com/artic...-idBRKBN27M1YL-OBRBS
SAO PAULO (Reuters) - The Brazilian Coffee Growers Association (Sincal) sent a letter to authorities like Minister Tereza Cristina on Friday pointing to a 40% drop in the country's 2021 Arabica coffee crop in relation to production potential for the period, citing a historical drought and high temperatures in crops.
Experts have been reporting for a few weeks these climate problems, which affected the flowering and led to pruning in many coffee plantations. But the association's projection points to a more drastic problem for the harvest of the Arabica variety, which represents about 75% of coffee production in Brazil, the largest global producer and exporter.
The 2021 harvest would already be the year of low productivity in the biennial cycle of this type of grain, which combines large and small harvests.
But the climate is aggravating, said Sincal, considering the possibility that arabica production may not even reach 20 million bags, versus 47.38 million bags in 2020, a year of high productivity in the cycle that was very close to the record 2018, according to data from the National Supply Company (Conab). .......
source: br.reuters.com/artic...-idBRKBN27M1YL-OBRBS
تم فتح الصفقة:
La Niña strengthened over October, with both the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. Forecasters estimate at least a 95% chance La Niña will last through the winter, with a 65% chance of it hanging on through the spring.
The latest forecasts from several models suggest the possibility of a strong La Niña (Niño-3.4 index values at -1.5°C) during the peak November-January season....learn more here:
www.climate.gov/news...ate-just-us-chickens
and here:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...isory/ensodisc.shtml
if you prefer!
The latest forecasts from several models suggest the possibility of a strong La Niña (Niño-3.4 index values at -1.5°C) during the peak November-January season....learn more here:
www.climate.gov/news...ate-just-us-chickens
and here:
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...isory/ensodisc.shtml
if you prefer!
تم فتح الصفقة:
Without the effective regularization of rainfall, the condition of Brazilian coffee plantations is even more worrying with each passing day. Without registering significant rains since March and with high temperatures, the water deficit in the main producing region of the country is intense and already has an impact for the 2021 harvest in Brazil. According to data from the Procafé Foundation, the drop for next year should be at least 25%, considering the impact of drought and the low biennial year.
José Braz Matiello - Agricultural Engineer Fundação Procafé, reinforces that the water stress of the plant at this moment is still very high, even considering that some regions are beginning to register the irregular return of rains. It is important to note that three blooms have already been recorded, but that the setting was not effective due to lack of water. In addition to the lack of water, high temperatures punish the plant. According to Matiello, the lack of water has already generated widespread dehydration, resulting in leaf fall, which is precisely what should impact the next harvest, since the plant's energy process is cut.
Matiello also explains that within a normal scenario, the flowering takes place in at least 50% of the flowering. “Every 100 flowers at the end we have about 50 fruits, but with this defoliation that we are seeing, we should have between 20 and 30 fruits. The plant with little leaf does not help to bloom because later it throws this fruit on the ground ”, comments the expert.
source: cccmg.com.br/cafe-pr...de-cenarion-critico/
José Braz Matiello - Agricultural Engineer Fundação Procafé, reinforces that the water stress of the plant at this moment is still very high, even considering that some regions are beginning to register the irregular return of rains. It is important to note that three blooms have already been recorded, but that the setting was not effective due to lack of water. In addition to the lack of water, high temperatures punish the plant. According to Matiello, the lack of water has already generated widespread dehydration, resulting in leaf fall, which is precisely what should impact the next harvest, since the plant's energy process is cut.
Matiello also explains that within a normal scenario, the flowering takes place in at least 50% of the flowering. “Every 100 flowers at the end we have about 50 fruits, but with this defoliation that we are seeing, we should have between 20 and 30 fruits. The plant with little leaf does not help to bloom because later it throws this fruit on the ground ”, comments the expert.
source: cccmg.com.br/cafe-pr...de-cenarion-critico/
تم فتح الصفقة:
Will coffee prices rise after back-to-back hurricanes hit Central America?
Now the region is facing another tropical threat as Iota is tracking toward across the Caribbean Sea and is forecast to be a hurricane before it hits Central America almost directly where Eta made landfall. The back-to-back hurricanes will take an economic toll on a valuable crop: coffee. Honduras is the biggest grower of coffee in the region, followed by Nicaragua and Guatemala. Combined, these three countries account for around 8% of the world’s coffee output. In Honduras alone, coffee is a $1 billion industry that generates 1 million jobs and accounts for 30% of the country’s Gross Domestic Agricultural Product, according to the Honduran Coffee Institute, a leading trade group in the country's coffee industry.
AccuWeather estimates that during Eta, there was a 10% loss of Central American coffee, mainly because of roads being washed out and coffee not making it to the market, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel, who works on the company's commodities forecasting team, said.
This could be compounded by the strike predicted early next week from Iota.
AccuWeather estimates that additional impacts from Iota could be as much as another 10% to perhaps 25% loss as the region could be more susceptible to damage in the wake of Eta, Samuhel said.
Even if the coffee plants are unharmed after both storms, the significant rain could cause the coffee to mature too quickly and affect its quality, said Lila Sevilla, president of the National Alliance of Nicaraguan Coffee Producers told The Associated Press. The damage to the roads across the countries could also slow the harvest of the quickly ripening plants, The Associated Press reported.
The loss of coffee crop in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could result in higher prices for wholesale coffee buyers but may not be enough to have a substantial impact on prices for everyday coffee drinkers. The one-two punch of tropical systems in Nicaragua is very rare, but not completely unheard of. The last time that two hurricanes hit Nicaragua in the same season occurred nearly 50 years ago....
source www.accuweather.com/...ntral-america/849795
Now the region is facing another tropical threat as Iota is tracking toward across the Caribbean Sea and is forecast to be a hurricane before it hits Central America almost directly where Eta made landfall. The back-to-back hurricanes will take an economic toll on a valuable crop: coffee. Honduras is the biggest grower of coffee in the region, followed by Nicaragua and Guatemala. Combined, these three countries account for around 8% of the world’s coffee output. In Honduras alone, coffee is a $1 billion industry that generates 1 million jobs and accounts for 30% of the country’s Gross Domestic Agricultural Product, according to the Honduran Coffee Institute, a leading trade group in the country's coffee industry.
AccuWeather estimates that during Eta, there was a 10% loss of Central American coffee, mainly because of roads being washed out and coffee not making it to the market, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel, who works on the company's commodities forecasting team, said.
This could be compounded by the strike predicted early next week from Iota.
AccuWeather estimates that additional impacts from Iota could be as much as another 10% to perhaps 25% loss as the region could be more susceptible to damage in the wake of Eta, Samuhel said.
Even if the coffee plants are unharmed after both storms, the significant rain could cause the coffee to mature too quickly and affect its quality, said Lila Sevilla, president of the National Alliance of Nicaraguan Coffee Producers told The Associated Press. The damage to the roads across the countries could also slow the harvest of the quickly ripening plants, The Associated Press reported.
The loss of coffee crop in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala could result in higher prices for wholesale coffee buyers but may not be enough to have a substantial impact on prices for everyday coffee drinkers. The one-two punch of tropical systems in Nicaragua is very rare, but not completely unheard of. The last time that two hurricanes hit Nicaragua in the same season occurred nearly 50 years ago....
source www.accuweather.com/...ntral-america/849795
تم فتح الصفقة:
The market started trading on Friday (27), reflecting Volcafé's figures, released last Thursday (26). According to the international trader, Arabica coffee production in Brazil is expected to drop by 33% in 2021, as a result of the lack of rain and intense heat in Brazilian crops.
"This is the forecast of Volcafe Ltd., one of the largest coffee traders. Brazil will probably harvest 34.2 million bags of Arabica coffee next year, against 51 million this year," said Bloomberg.
According to market analyst Eduardo Carvalhaes, in addition to the conditions of Brazilian crops, the market still seeks to understand the real conditions of production in Central America - which was hit by two hurricanes and also in Vietnam, where the intense volume of rain can hinder the harvest conilon.
"The climate here in Brazil continues to be of great concern to producers, who report irregular rains, there is still a lack of water in the soil in several areas. In addition, there is already a meteorologist pointing to vacationers between January and February, another important phase for the development of the coffee ", comments market analyst Eduardo Carvalhaes early this Friday morning.
www.noticiasagricola...s-de-500-pontos.html
"This is the forecast of Volcafe Ltd., one of the largest coffee traders. Brazil will probably harvest 34.2 million bags of Arabica coffee next year, against 51 million this year," said Bloomberg.
According to market analyst Eduardo Carvalhaes, in addition to the conditions of Brazilian crops, the market still seeks to understand the real conditions of production in Central America - which was hit by two hurricanes and also in Vietnam, where the intense volume of rain can hinder the harvest conilon.
"The climate here in Brazil continues to be of great concern to producers, who report irregular rains, there is still a lack of water in the soil in several areas. In addition, there is already a meteorologist pointing to vacationers between January and February, another important phase for the development of the coffee ", comments market analyst Eduardo Carvalhaes early this Friday morning.
www.noticiasagricola...s-de-500-pontos.html
تم فتح الصفقة:
Coffee: Ibiraci / MG increases loss potential and predicts 50% drop in Arabica harvest 21
The coffee market continues to follow the conditions of Brazilian crops, which in 2020 faced the water deficit and more intense high temperatures in recent years. Despite the wait for official figures for the production of 2021, the producer who is daily in the field already begins to better visualize the scenario for next year.
It rained again in the main coffee producing regions of the country in the last week of November, and although the precipitation brings relief to the soil, it does not recover the losses for 2021. In the Ibiraci and Claraval region, the Rural Union predicts a break of at least at least 50% in Arabica coffee production. In October, the consolidated loss figures were already at 30%.
According to Anivair Teles Rodrigues, president of the Union, the prolonged drought and high temperatures continued to punish the coffee plantations, even increasing the pruning area throughout the region. "With little coffee, it is very expensive to harvest, so the producer who saw that there would be less load, opted for pruning. In years like this, production decreases and the service increases," he comments.
As in the other cities of Minas Gerais, the great flowering took place in September, but without the effective return of the rains and the high temperatures made it impossible for the flowering to be well established. In a year of high bienniality, as it was 2020, the two municipalities together produced about 700 thousand bags of 60 kilos. For the next year, also considering the low biennial cycle, Anivair believes that production should not exceed 250 thousand bags.
source www.noticiasagricola...a-21-de-arabica.html
The coffee market continues to follow the conditions of Brazilian crops, which in 2020 faced the water deficit and more intense high temperatures in recent years. Despite the wait for official figures for the production of 2021, the producer who is daily in the field already begins to better visualize the scenario for next year.
It rained again in the main coffee producing regions of the country in the last week of November, and although the precipitation brings relief to the soil, it does not recover the losses for 2021. In the Ibiraci and Claraval region, the Rural Union predicts a break of at least at least 50% in Arabica coffee production. In October, the consolidated loss figures were already at 30%.
According to Anivair Teles Rodrigues, president of the Union, the prolonged drought and high temperatures continued to punish the coffee plantations, even increasing the pruning area throughout the region. "With little coffee, it is very expensive to harvest, so the producer who saw that there would be less load, opted for pruning. In years like this, production decreases and the service increases," he comments.
As in the other cities of Minas Gerais, the great flowering took place in September, but without the effective return of the rains and the high temperatures made it impossible for the flowering to be well established. In a year of high bienniality, as it was 2020, the two municipalities together produced about 700 thousand bags of 60 kilos. For the next year, also considering the low biennial cycle, Anivair believes that production should not exceed 250 thousand bags.
source www.noticiasagricola...a-21-de-arabica.html
تم فتح الصفقة:
Brazil Drought Damage May Cut High-End Coffee Crop for Two Years
A drought “disaster” that’s eroding prospects for Brazil’s next crop of beans preferred by major coffee chains may carry over to the following season, a leading analyst said after a tour of farms in the world’s top grower and exporter.
“I was floored by the conditions at some of these farms,” Judy Ganes, the president of J. Ganes Consulting, said in a telephone interview after examining crops in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s top state grower. “I have never, ever seen anything like this,” said the consultant, who has covered the industry for more than three decades. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said last month that some estimates provided to the government indicate 2021 losses of 15% to 40% from 2019, the previous lower-yielding half of a biennial cycle. Ecom Trading and Volcafe, two major traders, projected declines of a third from a year earlier. Arabica-coffee futures have jumped 34% from the 2020 low of 94.55 cents a pound on June 15 following the dry weather.“So far, I’ve just seen skeletal trees or trees that look lush from afar and then you get close to them, and there’s no coffee,” Ganes said after visiting municipalities including Varginha, Alfenas and Tres Pontas. “You had a first flowering failed, and this is the result.” Some coffee beans have turned black, and concerns escalated for cherries that were set may abort or drop from trees, Ganes said from the Hotel Vale do Cafe in the municipality of Machado. Vegetative growth for the 2022 crop is running behind, and “rain in the past two months will only help avoid another disaster,” she said. Ganes won’t make a production estimate until the tour ends next week. “Everything so far comes down very low. I don’t think the market has factored it into prices because it is a developing situation,” while the industry faces demand woes from the restaurant industry battered by the coronavirus outbreak, she said during a webinar.
“If there’s going to be a crop next year, it’s going to come from young trees, that are stronger and were able to withstand the drought, and from irrigated farms,” Ganes said.
source: www.bloomberg.com/ne...e-crop-for-two-years
A drought “disaster” that’s eroding prospects for Brazil’s next crop of beans preferred by major coffee chains may carry over to the following season, a leading analyst said after a tour of farms in the world’s top grower and exporter.
“I was floored by the conditions at some of these farms,” Judy Ganes, the president of J. Ganes Consulting, said in a telephone interview after examining crops in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s top state grower. “I have never, ever seen anything like this,” said the consultant, who has covered the industry for more than three decades. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry said last month that some estimates provided to the government indicate 2021 losses of 15% to 40% from 2019, the previous lower-yielding half of a biennial cycle. Ecom Trading and Volcafe, two major traders, projected declines of a third from a year earlier. Arabica-coffee futures have jumped 34% from the 2020 low of 94.55 cents a pound on June 15 following the dry weather.“So far, I’ve just seen skeletal trees or trees that look lush from afar and then you get close to them, and there’s no coffee,” Ganes said after visiting municipalities including Varginha, Alfenas and Tres Pontas. “You had a first flowering failed, and this is the result.” Some coffee beans have turned black, and concerns escalated for cherries that were set may abort or drop from trees, Ganes said from the Hotel Vale do Cafe in the municipality of Machado. Vegetative growth for the 2022 crop is running behind, and “rain in the past two months will only help avoid another disaster,” she said. Ganes won’t make a production estimate until the tour ends next week. “Everything so far comes down very low. I don’t think the market has factored it into prices because it is a developing situation,” while the industry faces demand woes from the restaurant industry battered by the coronavirus outbreak, she said during a webinar.
“If there’s going to be a crop next year, it’s going to come from young trees, that are stronger and were able to withstand the drought, and from irrigated farms,” Ganes said.
source: www.bloomberg.com/ne...e-crop-for-two-years
تم فتح الصفقة:
تم فتح الصفقة:
Brazil's coffee crop to have “big break” in 2021
Renowned soft commodities expert Judith Ganes came to Brazil this month in search of a “big picture” about the next coffee crop in the largest global producer and exporter, and the scenario found indicates significant losses that can reach 50% in many areas , she said. If the prolonged drought allowed the country to harvest one of the best quality crops in 2020, on the other hand it depleted the coffee trees for the 2021 cycle, according to warnings from experts and entities linked to producers made some time ago.
But, “in the face of so much conflicting information, I decided to come to Brazil to see the situation myself,” said the American by phone, already back in Panama after a seven-day technical expedition through the main Arabica producing regions of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo.
"Most of the time I can say that I couldn't believe how bad the crops are, and I came to Brazil thinking it could be the opposite," Judith, president of JGanes Consulting, told Reuters.
She noted that it is still not possible to estimate the size of the break in Brazil's Arabica crop, whose harvest normally begins only in May. But he said he saw some areas in such bad shape that they will not produce anything.
"There will be a big break, I saw areas with 100% losses, 50% losses, 30% losses", said the specialist, who has worked as a consultant for 37 years.
Brazil's coffee crop in 2020 reached a record 63 million 60 kg bags (considering Arabica and robust), according to the state-owned Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), or almost 70 million bags, according to analysts, such as Crop & Market - Government coffee numbers are often below those seen by the market. This record was possible with a strong increase in arabica production, which was in the year of high productivity and in 2021 will face the low of the biennial cycle. But the drought is likely to accentuate the drop in bienniality.
This is because, according to the consultant, "it was impossible to find the perfect crop" during their trip, which passed through areas of Varginha (MG) and Três Pontas (MG), in addition to Mogiana and Cerrado de Minas. I thought they were exaggerating (in the comments losses), but this property with coffee in good condition does not exist ”, she explained.
I thought they were exaggerating (in the comments about losses), but this property with coffee in good condition doesn't exist ”, he explained.
According to the expert, the irrigated areas, the pruned areas last year and those with younger feet are in better conditions, but will still have losses.
"I noticed that the newer areas are in better condition, but even these will suffer breaks that can vary from 10% to 30%," she said.
“Even coffee trees in irrigated areas seem stressed, they don't look as healthy as they should be”, he concluded, after talking to agronomists and producers, who said that there was not enough water to irrigate the crops, due to the effects of dry weather.
According to her, irrigated areas could have a 10% to 20% drop in production potential.........
source: forbes.com.br/forbes...ande-quebra-em-2021/
Renowned soft commodities expert Judith Ganes came to Brazil this month in search of a “big picture” about the next coffee crop in the largest global producer and exporter, and the scenario found indicates significant losses that can reach 50% in many areas , she said. If the prolonged drought allowed the country to harvest one of the best quality crops in 2020, on the other hand it depleted the coffee trees for the 2021 cycle, according to warnings from experts and entities linked to producers made some time ago.
But, “in the face of so much conflicting information, I decided to come to Brazil to see the situation myself,” said the American by phone, already back in Panama after a seven-day technical expedition through the main Arabica producing regions of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo.
"Most of the time I can say that I couldn't believe how bad the crops are, and I came to Brazil thinking it could be the opposite," Judith, president of JGanes Consulting, told Reuters.
She noted that it is still not possible to estimate the size of the break in Brazil's Arabica crop, whose harvest normally begins only in May. But he said he saw some areas in such bad shape that they will not produce anything.
"There will be a big break, I saw areas with 100% losses, 50% losses, 30% losses", said the specialist, who has worked as a consultant for 37 years.
Brazil's coffee crop in 2020 reached a record 63 million 60 kg bags (considering Arabica and robust), according to the state-owned Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), or almost 70 million bags, according to analysts, such as Crop & Market - Government coffee numbers are often below those seen by the market. This record was possible with a strong increase in arabica production, which was in the year of high productivity and in 2021 will face the low of the biennial cycle. But the drought is likely to accentuate the drop in bienniality.
This is because, according to the consultant, "it was impossible to find the perfect crop" during their trip, which passed through areas of Varginha (MG) and Três Pontas (MG), in addition to Mogiana and Cerrado de Minas. I thought they were exaggerating (in the comments losses), but this property with coffee in good condition does not exist ”, she explained.
I thought they were exaggerating (in the comments about losses), but this property with coffee in good condition doesn't exist ”, he explained.
According to the expert, the irrigated areas, the pruned areas last year and those with younger feet are in better conditions, but will still have losses.
"I noticed that the newer areas are in better condition, but even these will suffer breaks that can vary from 10% to 30%," she said.
“Even coffee trees in irrigated areas seem stressed, they don't look as healthy as they should be”, he concluded, after talking to agronomists and producers, who said that there was not enough water to irrigate the crops, due to the effects of dry weather.
According to her, irrigated areas could have a 10% to 20% drop in production potential.........
source: forbes.com.br/forbes...ande-quebra-em-2021/
تم فتح الصفقة:
i'm pretty sure we will reach in the first half of this year the target....latest news from everywhere:
(Bloomberg) -- Arabica-bean output in Brazil’s main producing areas is expected to slide 30% to 50% this year after excessive heat and scant rainfall, Marex Solutions says in a report after its team visited the main coffee regions in December.
• Harsh weather comes as the crop enters a tree-pruning period and the lower-yielding half of a biennial cycle
• One of the areas most affected by weather issues is South of Minas Gerais, which accounts for about 40% of nation’s arabica beans
• Matas de Minas, which accounts for ~17% of the nation’s arabica, may drop 40% y/y, mostly due to the on-off crop cycle
• Production in Mogiana Paulista, which contributes 13% of arabica output, may fall by at least 50% after adverse weather, Marex says
• For Cerrado, which also represents 13% of Brazil’s arabica crop, Marex sees potential for the harvest to drop by at least 30%, even as irrigation prevented extreme losses
• Robusta-coffee production is set to increase 10% to 15% in the 2021 harvest versus 2020, Marex says
• Marex’s team visited Brazil coffee belt in the first two weeks of December
• Marex sees a potential year-on-year decrease of at least 35%
and dry weather in minas gerais comes back in about a week, for at least 2-4 weeks
(Bloomberg) -- Arabica-bean output in Brazil’s main producing areas is expected to slide 30% to 50% this year after excessive heat and scant rainfall, Marex Solutions says in a report after its team visited the main coffee regions in December.
• Harsh weather comes as the crop enters a tree-pruning period and the lower-yielding half of a biennial cycle
• One of the areas most affected by weather issues is South of Minas Gerais, which accounts for about 40% of nation’s arabica beans
• Matas de Minas, which accounts for ~17% of the nation’s arabica, may drop 40% y/y, mostly due to the on-off crop cycle
• Production in Mogiana Paulista, which contributes 13% of arabica output, may fall by at least 50% after adverse weather, Marex says
• For Cerrado, which also represents 13% of Brazil’s arabica crop, Marex sees potential for the harvest to drop by at least 30%, even as irrigation prevented extreme losses
• Robusta-coffee production is set to increase 10% to 15% in the 2021 harvest versus 2020, Marex says
• Marex’s team visited Brazil coffee belt in the first two weeks of December
• Marex sees a potential year-on-year decrease of at least 35%
and dry weather in minas gerais comes back in about a week, for at least 2-4 weeks
تم فتح الصفقة:
Minas can harvest a coffee crop up to 43% lower this year. This is what the 1st Survey of the 2021 Coffee Crop reveals, released by the National Supply Company (Conab) this Thursday (21st). Still according to the study, the South of Minas Gerais should suffer losses between 43 and 47%, in relation to the previous year.
The vice president of the FAEMG System and chairman of the Coffee Commission of the entity and the CNA, Breno Mesquita, confirms that the numbers match the perception of the productive sector. “We have been warning about this scenario since last year. In addition to the negative bienniality, we had serious climate problems in 2020, which already signaled a worrying loss for the current crop. The percentages raised by Conab are very similar to those we have received from feedback from producers and cooperatives ”.
Minas Gerais accounts for almost half of all national production, and should reach between 19.8 million and 22.1 million bags (a reduction of 42.8% compared to last year). The mining loss can be percentage higher than the average of other states, due to the predominance of arabica coffee, which is more influenced by the negative bienniality. But the losses pointed out by Conab are equally worrying for the whole country: the document estimates a total national production - added conilon and arabica -, between 43.8 million and 49.5 million bags, indicating a reduction between 30.5% and 21.4%, compared to the result presented in the last harvest.
“It is a very significant loss and one that worries us a lot, because these reflections of the climate will probably also impact the next harvest, of 2022. We will need to create devices so that the Brazilian coffee grower is able to overcome this moment. Since last year, we have been working on this search for resources, credit lines and income instruments for the producer. We have already managed to contribute 150 million to the recovery of damaged coffee plantations, which are available to producers and will be essential to give a boost to Brazilian coffee production ”. - concludes Breno Mesquita.
It is interesting that more and more negative effects are forecasted for 2022/23
The vice president of the FAEMG System and chairman of the Coffee Commission of the entity and the CNA, Breno Mesquita, confirms that the numbers match the perception of the productive sector. “We have been warning about this scenario since last year. In addition to the negative bienniality, we had serious climate problems in 2020, which already signaled a worrying loss for the current crop. The percentages raised by Conab are very similar to those we have received from feedback from producers and cooperatives ”.
Minas Gerais accounts for almost half of all national production, and should reach between 19.8 million and 22.1 million bags (a reduction of 42.8% compared to last year). The mining loss can be percentage higher than the average of other states, due to the predominance of arabica coffee, which is more influenced by the negative bienniality. But the losses pointed out by Conab are equally worrying for the whole country: the document estimates a total national production - added conilon and arabica -, between 43.8 million and 49.5 million bags, indicating a reduction between 30.5% and 21.4%, compared to the result presented in the last harvest.
“It is a very significant loss and one that worries us a lot, because these reflections of the climate will probably also impact the next harvest, of 2022. We will need to create devices so that the Brazilian coffee grower is able to overcome this moment. Since last year, we have been working on this search for resources, credit lines and income instruments for the producer. We have already managed to contribute 150 million to the recovery of damaged coffee plantations, which are available to producers and will be essential to give a boost to Brazilian coffee production ”. - concludes Breno Mesquita.
It is interesting that more and more negative effects are forecasted for 2022/23
تم فتح الصفقة:
تم فتح الصفقة:
self fulfilling prophecy
self fulfilling prophecy
تم فتح الصفقة:
تم فتح الصفقة:
Preço do arábica pode subir ainda mais com déficit, diz Olam
Alfred Cang e Anuradha Raghu
26 de fevereiro de 2021 6:35 PM
(Bloomberg) -- Arabica coffee prices may rise even further with the impact of the adverse climate in Brazil in the harvests and the risk of product shortages, according to Olam International, one of the largest global tradings for the commodity.
"Given the bad weather we had in Brazil, we expect the 2021-22 and 2022-23 harvests to be significantly smaller, which could result in a very sharp structural deficit in the arabica market," said Olam CEO Sunny Verghese, in an interview on Friday. "We can see Arabica prices much higher."
The successful distribution of vaccines against Covid-19 and the recovery in demand from the pandemic will also push structural Arabica coffee deficits into a "very explosive situation," he said.
The Arabica contract in New York accumulates an increase of about 35% since November, negotiated at the highest level since 2017, driven by signs of deterioration of the harvest in Brazil and by the expectation of improvement in demand.
Rabobank cut the estimate for Brazilian Arabica production to 36 million bags in the 2021-22 season and raised the projection of the global coffee deficit to 2.6 million bags compared to a surplus of 10 million bags a year earlier. The consultancy Bison Luxley predicts that production will decrease by more than 40%, to 28.7 million to 30.5 million bags, due to the most adverse climatic conditions in Brazil since the 1980s.
The robusta market will be more balanced, said Verghese of Olam, as the drought was not as strong in these cultivation areas as compared to Arabica.
©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
br.financas.yahoo.co...ainda-173545653.html
Alfred Cang e Anuradha Raghu
26 de fevereiro de 2021 6:35 PM
(Bloomberg) -- Arabica coffee prices may rise even further with the impact of the adverse climate in Brazil in the harvests and the risk of product shortages, according to Olam International, one of the largest global tradings for the commodity.
"Given the bad weather we had in Brazil, we expect the 2021-22 and 2022-23 harvests to be significantly smaller, which could result in a very sharp structural deficit in the arabica market," said Olam CEO Sunny Verghese, in an interview on Friday. "We can see Arabica prices much higher."
The successful distribution of vaccines against Covid-19 and the recovery in demand from the pandemic will also push structural Arabica coffee deficits into a "very explosive situation," he said.
The Arabica contract in New York accumulates an increase of about 35% since November, negotiated at the highest level since 2017, driven by signs of deterioration of the harvest in Brazil and by the expectation of improvement in demand.
Rabobank cut the estimate for Brazilian Arabica production to 36 million bags in the 2021-22 season and raised the projection of the global coffee deficit to 2.6 million bags compared to a surplus of 10 million bags a year earlier. The consultancy Bison Luxley predicts that production will decrease by more than 40%, to 28.7 million to 30.5 million bags, due to the most adverse climatic conditions in Brazil since the 1980s.
The robusta market will be more balanced, said Verghese of Olam, as the drought was not as strong in these cultivation areas as compared to Arabica.
©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
br.financas.yahoo.co...ainda-173545653.html
تم فتح الصفقة:
Side battle USDBRL
tomorrow Brazil Central Bank decides on interest rates. We will see if commodities rich countries feel the impact on higher prices?
tradingeconomics.com...brazil/interest-rate
tomorrow Brazil Central Bank decides on interest rates. We will see if commodities rich countries feel the impact on higher prices?
tradingeconomics.com...brazil/interest-rate
تم فتح الصفقة:
Copom increases the Selic rate to 2.75% p.a.
In its 237th meeting, the Copom unanimously decided to increase the Selic rate to 2.75% p.a.
The following observations provide an update of the Copom's baseline scenario:
· Regarding the global outlook, new fiscal stimuli in some developed countries and the advancement of the COVID-19 immunization programs should promote a more robust economic recovery throughout the year. Economic slack and central bank communication from major economies suggest monetary stimuli will last long. However, market discussion regarding inflationary risks in these economies, and the associated repricing of financial assets, could result in a more challenging environment for emerging economies;
· Turning to the Brazilian economy, recent indicators, particularly the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, continued to suggest a consistent economic recovery in spite of the reduction in the emergency income transfers. However, these readings do not capture the effects of the recent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. Prospectively, uncertainty about economic growth remains larger than usual, especially for the first and second quarters of this year;
· The continuing increase in commodities prices, measured in local currency, are affecting current inflation and triggered additional increases in inflation forecasts for the next months, especially through its effects on fuel prices. In spite of these stronger and more persistent than expected short-term inflationary pressures, the Committee maintains the diagnosis that the current shocks are temporary, but continues to closely monitor its evolution;
· The various measures of underlying inflation are in levels above the range compatible with meeting the inflation target;
· Inflation expectations for 2021, 2022, and 2023 collected by the Focus survey are around 4.6%, 3.5%, and 3.25%, respectively; and
· The Copom's inflation projections in its baseline scenario, with interest rate path extracted from the Focus survey and exchange rate starting at R$5.70/US$* and evolving according to the purchase power parity (PPP), stand around 5.0% for 2021 and 3.5% for 2022. This scenario assumes a path for the Selic rate that ends 2021 at 4.50% p.a. and rises to 5.50% p.a. in 2022. In this scenario, inflation projections for administered prices are 9.5% for 2021 and 4.4% for 2022.
source: www.bcb.gov.br/en/pressdetail/2381/nota
In its 237th meeting, the Copom unanimously decided to increase the Selic rate to 2.75% p.a.
The following observations provide an update of the Copom's baseline scenario:
· Regarding the global outlook, new fiscal stimuli in some developed countries and the advancement of the COVID-19 immunization programs should promote a more robust economic recovery throughout the year. Economic slack and central bank communication from major economies suggest monetary stimuli will last long. However, market discussion regarding inflationary risks in these economies, and the associated repricing of financial assets, could result in a more challenging environment for emerging economies;
· Turning to the Brazilian economy, recent indicators, particularly the GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2020, continued to suggest a consistent economic recovery in spite of the reduction in the emergency income transfers. However, these readings do not capture the effects of the recent increase in the number of COVID-19 cases. Prospectively, uncertainty about economic growth remains larger than usual, especially for the first and second quarters of this year;
· The continuing increase in commodities prices, measured in local currency, are affecting current inflation and triggered additional increases in inflation forecasts for the next months, especially through its effects on fuel prices. In spite of these stronger and more persistent than expected short-term inflationary pressures, the Committee maintains the diagnosis that the current shocks are temporary, but continues to closely monitor its evolution;
· The various measures of underlying inflation are in levels above the range compatible with meeting the inflation target;
· Inflation expectations for 2021, 2022, and 2023 collected by the Focus survey are around 4.6%, 3.5%, and 3.25%, respectively; and
· The Copom's inflation projections in its baseline scenario, with interest rate path extracted from the Focus survey and exchange rate starting at R$5.70/US$* and evolving according to the purchase power parity (PPP), stand around 5.0% for 2021 and 3.5% for 2022. This scenario assumes a path for the Selic rate that ends 2021 at 4.50% p.a. and rises to 5.50% p.a. in 2022. In this scenario, inflation projections for administered prices are 9.5% for 2021 and 4.4% for 2022.
source: www.bcb.gov.br/en/pressdetail/2381/nota
تعليق:
it's not fundamental but interesting
it's not fundamental but interesting
تم فتح الصفقة:
Emater's report estimates a 40.7% reduction in the coffee harvest in 2021 in MG
In 2020, adverse climatic events affected a large part of the coffee plantations in Minas Gerais, reducing crop projections for this year. Emater-MG (Company of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension of the State of Minas Gerais) and the Faemg / Senar / Inaes System (Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of Minas Gerais) carried out a survey in several producing municipalities to verify the impacts on coffee plantations. The data obtained were consolidated in the report Survey of the Estimation of Losses in Cafeiculture due to Climatic Weather in Minas Gerais.
The work estimates that 193 thousand hectares of coffee cultivated area have been reached in the state and there may be a 20.7% reduction in harvest in 2021. When considering the effect of the negative bienniality, which on average already provides an approximate fall of 20% between one crop and another, the percentage loss estimate for this year rises to 40.7%. In addition, it is estimated that approximately 15 thousand coffee growers had their crops affected by the weather, especially by the water deficit.
The information was collected from producers, cooperatives and entities representing the sector. The survey obtained responses in 322 coffee producing municipalities and the data were consolidated by the Technical Department of Emater-MG and by the Technical and ATeG Management of the Faemg / Senar / Inaes System. The participating municipalities were grouped into 4 macro-regions: Sul de Minas, Chapada de Minas, Matas de Minas and Cerrado Mineiro.
Of the sample, 218 municipalities reported the occurrence of some climatic inclement weather from July to November 2020, but in some municipalities more than one climatic phenomenon occurred. “Last year, from August to October, it hardly rained at all. The plant seeks water in the soil to maintain and develop, so drought was the one that most affected the coffee plantations in Minas Gerais ”, comments the technical coordinator of Coffeemaking at Emater-MG, Julian Carvalho, one of those responsible for the study. The water deficit reached 55.9% of the municipalities and the high average temperatures, 42.5%. The occurrence of hail (9.3%) was also observed in 30 municipalities.
Fall in harvest
In 65.2% of the municipalities, producers had their crops affected, and in 20.8% of the municipalities consulted, more than 150 producers in each municipality had their crops affected. The occurrence of drought brings expectations of a reduction in the production of the 2021 harvest, which may also interfere in future harvests. In the last year, starting in September, there was an increase in temperature, staying above 25 ° C, and it is at this time that the plant blooms. “Coffee has several phenological phases (flowering, fruiting, etc.). When some weather reaches a stage, the plant may have a lower production and may still have a loss in the quality of the fruits, which reduces the profitability of the farmer ”, argues the coordinator of Emater-MG
The expectation is that there will be a reduction in coffee production in the producing municipalities in Minas Gerais, due to climatic weather conditions of the order of 21.2% for dry arabica coffee and 13.2% for irrigated arabica coffee, not to mention the bienality effect. . In terms of volume, a total reduction of around 10.3 million bags is expected in the mining season of Arabica coffee. Thus, the survey points to a projection for the 2021 harvest of around 17.9 million bags.
The Coffeemaking coordinator at Emater-MG, Julian Carvalho, clarifies that the condition shown in the report reflects an appraised stage in January 2021, with changes due to cultural conditions and climatic conditions. Therefore, the loss for the 2021 harvest may be greater or less than estimated and it is also expected to reflect the problems caused in 2020 for the 2022 harvest.
In 2020, adverse climatic events affected a large part of the coffee plantations in Minas Gerais, reducing crop projections for this year. Emater-MG (Company of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension of the State of Minas Gerais) and the Faemg / Senar / Inaes System (Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of Minas Gerais) carried out a survey in several producing municipalities to verify the impacts on coffee plantations. The data obtained were consolidated in the report Survey of the Estimation of Losses in Cafeiculture due to Climatic Weather in Minas Gerais.
The work estimates that 193 thousand hectares of coffee cultivated area have been reached in the state and there may be a 20.7% reduction in harvest in 2021. When considering the effect of the negative bienniality, which on average already provides an approximate fall of 20% between one crop and another, the percentage loss estimate for this year rises to 40.7%. In addition, it is estimated that approximately 15 thousand coffee growers had their crops affected by the weather, especially by the water deficit.
The information was collected from producers, cooperatives and entities representing the sector. The survey obtained responses in 322 coffee producing municipalities and the data were consolidated by the Technical Department of Emater-MG and by the Technical and ATeG Management of the Faemg / Senar / Inaes System. The participating municipalities were grouped into 4 macro-regions: Sul de Minas, Chapada de Minas, Matas de Minas and Cerrado Mineiro.
Of the sample, 218 municipalities reported the occurrence of some climatic inclement weather from July to November 2020, but in some municipalities more than one climatic phenomenon occurred. “Last year, from August to October, it hardly rained at all. The plant seeks water in the soil to maintain and develop, so drought was the one that most affected the coffee plantations in Minas Gerais ”, comments the technical coordinator of Coffeemaking at Emater-MG, Julian Carvalho, one of those responsible for the study. The water deficit reached 55.9% of the municipalities and the high average temperatures, 42.5%. The occurrence of hail (9.3%) was also observed in 30 municipalities.
Fall in harvest
In 65.2% of the municipalities, producers had their crops affected, and in 20.8% of the municipalities consulted, more than 150 producers in each municipality had their crops affected. The occurrence of drought brings expectations of a reduction in the production of the 2021 harvest, which may also interfere in future harvests. In the last year, starting in September, there was an increase in temperature, staying above 25 ° C, and it is at this time that the plant blooms. “Coffee has several phenological phases (flowering, fruiting, etc.). When some weather reaches a stage, the plant may have a lower production and may still have a loss in the quality of the fruits, which reduces the profitability of the farmer ”, argues the coordinator of Emater-MG
The expectation is that there will be a reduction in coffee production in the producing municipalities in Minas Gerais, due to climatic weather conditions of the order of 21.2% for dry arabica coffee and 13.2% for irrigated arabica coffee, not to mention the bienality effect. . In terms of volume, a total reduction of around 10.3 million bags is expected in the mining season of Arabica coffee. Thus, the survey points to a projection for the 2021 harvest of around 17.9 million bags.
The Coffeemaking coordinator at Emater-MG, Julian Carvalho, clarifies that the condition shown in the report reflects an appraised stage in January 2021, with changes due to cultural conditions and climatic conditions. Therefore, the loss for the 2021 harvest may be greater or less than estimated and it is also expected to reflect the problems caused in 2020 for the 2022 harvest.
تم فتح الصفقة:
www.noticiasagricola...r-rentabilidade.html
this will have more impact if coffeeprices do not climb this year
this will have more impact if coffeeprices do not climb this year
تعليق:
WANDERLEY CINTRA FERREIRA August / 2021 - Risk Contract Maturity - Coffee
WANDERLEY CINTRA FERREIRA
Coffee grower, ex-president of COCAPEC - Coffee Growers Cooperative
and Agropecuaristas and ex-president of Sicoob-CREDICOCAPEC -
Alta Mogiana Free Admission Credit Cooperative.
(wcintraferreira@outlook.com)
Drought and high temperatures in 2020 are already having a strong impact on coffee production nationwide, in the 2021 harvests and with consequences in 2022.
The aggravating factor is that in 2021 it is already signaling the repetition of the climatic phenomenon, object of my previous article in the magazine Attalea Agronegócios - April / 21. From January to April this year, we already have a water deficit of more than 530 mm., Compared to 2020.
This situation is already being reflected by the market, causing a rise in prices that has not been seen for a long time, at a time when the coffee grower does not have coffee and is going to start a small harvest and that, for sure, will not be able to honor its commitments.
We cannot wait for AUGUST. This is the time for Associations, CNC, Cooperatives, CNA and Rural Unions to start a movement to discuss this new reality that could compromise the entire sector, mainly the producer, the main link in the chain. They cannot omit, the time is now.
I have talked to many producers who have made FUTURE SALES (RISK CONTRACT) who are already terrified, as they will not be able to fulfill such contracts.
"Your problem" will say some. WRONG, our problem, because a large number of producers were induced, by the DEALERS in the matter, to make future sales (sell what they did not have yet) in the illusion of having a more satisfactory profit.
Critical situation, very serious, there will be a shortage of coffee to honor contracts and surplus services for lawyers.
The Risk Agreement for the Future Sale of coffee could lead coffee growers to a very complicated situation, as they will have to buy coffee at a high price and deliver it at a much lower price.We recently saw a painful experience by Exportadora TERRA FORTE (undergoing judicial reorganization) that did not honor its contracts with COCAPEC, with coffee growers and other companies, causing great losses.
This is the moment for the sector to mobilize. The rope always breaks on the weakest side.
"FARM DOES NOT BREAK, BUT THE OWNER WILL CHANGE".
source: revistadeagronegocio...trato-de-risco-cafe/
WANDERLEY CINTRA FERREIRA
Coffee grower, ex-president of COCAPEC - Coffee Growers Cooperative
and Agropecuaristas and ex-president of Sicoob-CREDICOCAPEC -
Alta Mogiana Free Admission Credit Cooperative.
(wcintraferreira@outlook.com)
Drought and high temperatures in 2020 are already having a strong impact on coffee production nationwide, in the 2021 harvests and with consequences in 2022.
The aggravating factor is that in 2021 it is already signaling the repetition of the climatic phenomenon, object of my previous article in the magazine Attalea Agronegócios - April / 21. From January to April this year, we already have a water deficit of more than 530 mm., Compared to 2020.
This situation is already being reflected by the market, causing a rise in prices that has not been seen for a long time, at a time when the coffee grower does not have coffee and is going to start a small harvest and that, for sure, will not be able to honor its commitments.
We cannot wait for AUGUST. This is the time for Associations, CNC, Cooperatives, CNA and Rural Unions to start a movement to discuss this new reality that could compromise the entire sector, mainly the producer, the main link in the chain. They cannot omit, the time is now.
I have talked to many producers who have made FUTURE SALES (RISK CONTRACT) who are already terrified, as they will not be able to fulfill such contracts.
"Your problem" will say some. WRONG, our problem, because a large number of producers were induced, by the DEALERS in the matter, to make future sales (sell what they did not have yet) in the illusion of having a more satisfactory profit.
Critical situation, very serious, there will be a shortage of coffee to honor contracts and surplus services for lawyers.
The Risk Agreement for the Future Sale of coffee could lead coffee growers to a very complicated situation, as they will have to buy coffee at a high price and deliver it at a much lower price.We recently saw a painful experience by Exportadora TERRA FORTE (undergoing judicial reorganization) that did not honor its contracts with COCAPEC, with coffee growers and other companies, causing great losses.
This is the moment for the sector to mobilize. The rope always breaks on the weakest side.
"FARM DOES NOT BREAK, BUT THE OWNER WILL CHANGE".
source: revistadeagronegocio...trato-de-risco-cafe/
تعليق:
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 26 April 2021
Page 25:
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts an imminent transition to ENSO-neutral and continuing into fall 2021. La Niña is predicted to re-emerge during the late fall or winter 2021-22.
source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...Wlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Update prepared by:
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 26 April 2021
Page 25:
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts an imminent transition to ENSO-neutral and continuing into fall 2021. La Niña is predicted to re-emerge during the late fall or winter 2021-22.
source: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go...Wlink/MJO/enso.shtml
تم فتح الصفقة:
تم فتح الصفقة:
World’s Oranges, Coffee at Risk as Brazil Runs Out of Water
Rainy season was driest in decades in key Center-South region
Arabica-coffee and orange are among crops threatened
By Fabiana Batista
(Bloomberg) --
Brazil, the world’s biggest exporter of coffee, sugar and orange juice, just had a rainy season that brought hardly any rain. Soils are parched and river levels are low in the nation’s Center-South region, a powerhouse of agricultural output. The drought is so severe that farmers are worried they’ll run out of the water reserves that help keep crops alive over the next several months, the country’s dry season.
Mauricio Pinheiro, 59, started irrigating his arabica-coffee crops in March, two months earlier than normal, after his 53-hectare plantation got less than half of the rain it needed. He’s using so much water for the plants that there isn’t enough left for his home. In order to keep the showers and faucets running, he’s had to search for another well. “My irrigation reservoir is drying up now -- that usually happens in August,” said Pinheiro, who lives in Pedregulho in the Alta Mogiana region, in Sao Paulo state. “I’m really concerned about running out of water in the coming months.”
The prospect of withering orange trees and coffee plants are coming at a time when agricultural crops are rallying to multiyear highs, which has fanned fears of food inflation. Higher food costs may exacerbate hunger, a problem around the globe that the Covid-19 pandemic has made more acute. Coffee and raw-sugar contracts on the ICE Futures exchange in New York have already touched four-year highs. If even irrigated areas can’t get enough water, Brazil’s coffee and orange output may decline for a second year in a row. Brazil’s current orange crop shrunk 31% from the previous season, the most in 33 years, and production of arabica coffee, the high-end kind used by chains like Starbucks Corp., is also dropping sharply. Rainfall was disastrously low for many areas in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais from January to April, said John Corbett, Chief Executive Officer at aWhere Inc. Over the next 15 days, most of Brazil is projected to remain drier than normal.
While a dry spell is typical for this time of year in Brazil, it’s expected to last longer than usual, adding to concerns. Regular rains will return to the region between October and November, instead of September, said Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist at Somar Meteorologia. About 30% of Brazil’s orange crop and 15% of arabica coffee fields are irrigated. “The levels of rivers and lakes has been very concerning,” said Regis Ricco, director at Minas Gerais-based RR Consultoria Rural. Francisco Sergio de Assis, a coffee grower in Monte Carmelo, a municipality in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais, started irrigating his fields a month early, and doesn’t think his water reservoirs will last if it doesn’t rain by September. The situation is becoming critical for orange groves. Emerson Fachini, an orange farmer who cultivates 45 hectares (11 acres) in Palestina municipality in Sao Paulo state, said he’s had irrigation systems turned on for most of the time since January.
“Water reservoirs are drying up, depleted just ahead of the dry season,” Gilberto Tozatti, of Sao Paulo-based GCONCI-Group Citrus Consulting, said by phone. “The situation is affecting most of Sao Paulo state and still harming next season’s crop.”
source: www.bloomberg.com/ne...il-runs-out-of-water
Rainy season was driest in decades in key Center-South region
Arabica-coffee and orange are among crops threatened
By Fabiana Batista
(Bloomberg) --
Brazil, the world’s biggest exporter of coffee, sugar and orange juice, just had a rainy season that brought hardly any rain. Soils are parched and river levels are low in the nation’s Center-South region, a powerhouse of agricultural output. The drought is so severe that farmers are worried they’ll run out of the water reserves that help keep crops alive over the next several months, the country’s dry season.
Mauricio Pinheiro, 59, started irrigating his arabica-coffee crops in March, two months earlier than normal, after his 53-hectare plantation got less than half of the rain it needed. He’s using so much water for the plants that there isn’t enough left for his home. In order to keep the showers and faucets running, he’s had to search for another well. “My irrigation reservoir is drying up now -- that usually happens in August,” said Pinheiro, who lives in Pedregulho in the Alta Mogiana region, in Sao Paulo state. “I’m really concerned about running out of water in the coming months.”
The prospect of withering orange trees and coffee plants are coming at a time when agricultural crops are rallying to multiyear highs, which has fanned fears of food inflation. Higher food costs may exacerbate hunger, a problem around the globe that the Covid-19 pandemic has made more acute. Coffee and raw-sugar contracts on the ICE Futures exchange in New York have already touched four-year highs. If even irrigated areas can’t get enough water, Brazil’s coffee and orange output may decline for a second year in a row. Brazil’s current orange crop shrunk 31% from the previous season, the most in 33 years, and production of arabica coffee, the high-end kind used by chains like Starbucks Corp., is also dropping sharply. Rainfall was disastrously low for many areas in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais from January to April, said John Corbett, Chief Executive Officer at aWhere Inc. Over the next 15 days, most of Brazil is projected to remain drier than normal.
While a dry spell is typical for this time of year in Brazil, it’s expected to last longer than usual, adding to concerns. Regular rains will return to the region between October and November, instead of September, said Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist at Somar Meteorologia. About 30% of Brazil’s orange crop and 15% of arabica coffee fields are irrigated. “The levels of rivers and lakes has been very concerning,” said Regis Ricco, director at Minas Gerais-based RR Consultoria Rural. Francisco Sergio de Assis, a coffee grower in Monte Carmelo, a municipality in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais, started irrigating his fields a month early, and doesn’t think his water reservoirs will last if it doesn’t rain by September. The situation is becoming critical for orange groves. Emerson Fachini, an orange farmer who cultivates 45 hectares (11 acres) in Palestina municipality in Sao Paulo state, said he’s had irrigation systems turned on for most of the time since January.
“Water reservoirs are drying up, depleted just ahead of the dry season,” Gilberto Tozatti, of Sao Paulo-based GCONCI-Group Citrus Consulting, said by phone. “The situation is affecting most of Sao Paulo state and still harming next season’s crop.”
source: www.bloomberg.com/ne...il-runs-out-of-water
تم فتح الصفقة:
تم فتح الصفقة:
أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف:
i hope u all enjoyed it and made a fortune too! have a nice life
أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف:
In December, Somar expects normal rainfall volume, but with above average temperatures. The main growing areas may receive 100 millimeters this week, but that would help restore just 10 percentage points of the moisture deficit in some parts.
"Except for the rare episodes of good rain, we had minuscule rainfall of 2 to 4 millimeters and strong sun," said Maurício Araújo Ribeiro, 48, who grows 128 hectares of arabica in southern Minas Gerais. "The forecast is for rain, the sky is cloudy, but the rain does not come."
The losses on his farms are estimated at between 30% and 35%, but if the climate does not improve, they can reach 50%, he said.
Even in irrigated areas, the losses are greater than previously thought, said Regis Ricco, director of RR Consultoria Rural in Alfenas, Minas Gerais. “The situation is chaotic. It is a year to go down in history, ”he said. The most negative prospects for Brazil come after recent hurricanes in Central America that threaten the region's production, while rains delay the harvest of robusta coffee in Vietnam. Supply concerns drove New York futures to the biggest monthly gain since July. "I see futures rising in the first half of next year, as the prospect of low production coincides with the optimism of vaccination against Covid, increasing the outlook for coffee demand," said Nelson Salvaterra, broker at Coffee New Selection.
He said prices could return to between $ 1.40 and $ 1.50 per pound compared to the current $ 1.23.
source www.moneytimes.com.b...cos-de-cafe-arabica/