fundamentals are important - Brazil gained +4% in new coffee producing land last year - they have 40% of global output => +1,6% world coffee production only from Brazil and good weather conditions (until now). their currency is to watch too! As long as Bolsonaro is president its really difficult, because they can easily convert rain forest to agricultural lands, witch is bad for coffee prices (and the world too). in the long term coffee needs to go to 1.50 - 1.70 September/October its more interesting - El Niño
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i think we are reaching interesting area to start buying arabica. but always watch USD/BRL - and bolsonaros politics.... same for SUGARUSD
I see what you try to say here. I just think that this line is important as well:
maybe a good entry with a tight SL?
foaraman
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@oisois, you are right! I tried to say never forget the fundamental side when you invest in soft commodities - there is no clear direction, until a new event i would prefer stay outside....
maybe a good entry with a tight SL?