Why I think market has already bottom out!

١٠ أبريل ٢٠٢٠

A normal correction (without impact of COVID-19), would have taken NIFTY to level of 9700-10300 (~22% - 20%) based on past drop analysis (Fibonacci Retracements and GANN BOX).
Considering impact of COVID-19, a further drop of 22-25% occurred based on impact of economy (basically FY2020-21 Q1 has impacted, so around 25% net impact), hence OVERALL drop of around 45-47% from market peak, which is 7500 for NIFTY.

So, I think NIFTY has already left it BOTTOM or at best it can RETEST it BUT NOT drop further, if COVID-19 situation start improving from MAY-2020 and LOCKDOWN lifted before 01-May-2020.

Thanks

١١ أبريل ٢٠٢٠

ملاحظة

I need to a bit more elaborate graphs here.

Case-1: ONLY Market correction:
Suppose there has been not been issue of COVID-19 and market took a correction....how much correction expected in this case? As per my analysis, correction could be in range of 18-20% as per previous correction, which is also validate by 200 SMA as updated in post.

Case-2: Market Correction + Economic Impact due to COVID-19:
In this case, apart from market correction of 20%, additional economic impact of 25% added, which makes net impact of ~40%, this what has Market has achieved from its high position.

Hope this clarifies.

Note-1: Additional impact due to economy may increase further if lockdown goes beyond 01-MAY-20, so lockdown till 01-May-20 is already considered.

Note-2: Fib Ret plotted in reverse order to get upper limit if Wave-5 goes on.

Note-3: In learning phase, so comments/ suggestions are invited for self improvement & learning.

Thanks