$NQ1! A Nasdaq 100 TA story
Starting July 2021:
1. Nasdaq 100 E-Mini continues uptrend and then loses some steam to test the multi year uptrend line 1 (red line).
2. Support holds, and buyers come in volume to push the Nasdaq to a new high 2
3. Nasdaq 100 E-Mini goes lower to test the SMMA 40 twice before attempting a new high. It fails to reach a new high 3 and in the process creates a double top. First warning light go off
4. Sellers now gain the upper hand and push the Nasdaq 100 E-Mini to below the SMMA 40 (blue line). Buyers steps in but fail to maintain momentum above the SMMA 40 (blue line). Second warning light goes off. Seller volatility increase to now break the multi year upward sloping trendline and also break the MA 200 like a knife through butter to test @4. This is now starting to look like a neckline of a bearish head and shoulders formation. Neckline support kicks in and the market once again challenge the MA 200, but fails to do so, twice (orange line). A third warning light goes off.
5. After the second challenge to the MA200 volatility kicks in and bears drive the Nasdaq 100 E-Mini back towards the neckline. We have two fake breaks with a major short trap 5 below the neckline. Buyers steps in and create a major short squeeze right back to the MA 200 6 (orange line)
6. Once again the MA 200 holds up and a forth warning light now goes off. The Nasdaq 100 E-Mini drops back to the neckline to test this level @7.
Buyers and sellers will be wary of 7 because more than one scenario can play out here. Either we break the neckline, retest the neckline and fall back further, or we break the neckline and again create a short squeeze scenario. We could also just bounce a little right off the neckline before losing stream. Either way, volatility will be the order of the day creating some difficult trading conditions around this neckline level. Reduce position size at this level to reduce risk until the next play reveal itself. Do not fall in love with the upside.
1. Nasdaq 100 E-Mini continues uptrend and then loses some steam to test the multi year uptrend line 1 (red line).
2. Support holds, and buyers come in volume to push the Nasdaq to a new high 2
3. Nasdaq 100 E-Mini goes lower to test the SMMA 40 twice before attempting a new high. It fails to reach a new high 3 and in the process creates a double top. First warning light go off
4. Sellers now gain the upper hand and push the Nasdaq 100 E-Mini to below the SMMA 40 (blue line). Buyers steps in but fail to maintain momentum above the SMMA 40 (blue line). Second warning light goes off. Seller volatility increase to now break the multi year upward sloping trendline and also break the MA 200 like a knife through butter to test @4. This is now starting to look like a neckline of a bearish head and shoulders formation. Neckline support kicks in and the market once again challenge the MA 200, but fails to do so, twice (orange line). A third warning light goes off.
5. After the second challenge to the MA200 volatility kicks in and bears drive the Nasdaq 100 E-Mini back towards the neckline. We have two fake breaks with a major short trap 5 below the neckline. Buyers steps in and create a major short squeeze right back to the MA 200 6 (orange line)
6. Once again the MA 200 holds up and a forth warning light now goes off. The Nasdaq 100 E-Mini drops back to the neckline to test this level @7.
Buyers and sellers will be wary of 7 because more than one scenario can play out here. Either we break the neckline, retest the neckline and fall back further, or we break the neckline and again create a short squeeze scenario. We could also just bounce a little right off the neckline before losing stream. Either way, volatility will be the order of the day creating some difficult trading conditions around this neckline level. Reduce position size at this level to reduce risk until the next play reveal itself. Do not fall in love with the upside.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.