From the SPX all-time high on 8/8/17 the decline has taken the form of Elliott waves one's and two's down. If this count is correct next week 8/28/17 to 9/1/17 could see what is called an Elliott third of a third down. This type of wave is usually very powerful an steep. The SPX could reached the important support area of 2322 this week.
I still suspect this support to be broken, my prime date for a mini crash bottom is 9/11/17 Secondary mini crash bottom date is 9/20/17 FOMC meeting.
Thanks for the info. Very high probability the sharp decline has begun!
Mark
Geofftv1
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Mark, I agree, last Friday posted a shooting star (bearish) candle on the daily chart which may herald the start of a deeper decline this week.
Dairy_Trend
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Mark, what level needs to be breached in this correction for you to confirm 100% that 08/08/17 was the top of the Cycle (or Super Cycle) wave 5?
markrivest
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Hi @navitrend
Thanks for the question.
When analyzing markets its important to stay mentally flexible and to think in terms of probabilities not 100% certainties
Regardless of the level, have alternate wave counts to prepare for any contingencies.
I think Super Cycle wave (IV) bottomed in March 2009. This is probably part of a developing Grand Super Cycle Five waves up from the year 1790 in the US is stock market.
I think that Cycle wave I of a developing Ending Diagonal Triangle may have topped on 8/8/17. See my second post on trading view dated 8/22/16 - my long term SPX count.
My alternate count from 2009 has the SPX completing on 8/8/17 - Primary wave "3" of a developing five wave Cycle.
The highest probability forecast for both my main and alternate count is that a multi - month decline began on 8/8/17.
The best target zone for the next decline in both counts, is some where in the SPX 1800 to 2100 area.
Assuming a decline down from SPX 2490 takes the form of five waves, if the next rally after the first decline takes the form of three waves and fails to exceed 2490,
it would then require a second decline after the three wave partial retracement - to go below the first decline to consider a high probability that the
SPX top at 2490 could hold for several years. It may take until mid -2018 to make this determination.
Take one step at a time. Focus on the near term. First we need to see if the SPX can break below daily support at 2405.
Mark
The_Unwind
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I agree completely with Mr. Rivest's Elliot Wave analysis above.
His work is most valuable, at major turning points in the market.
There is a strong possibility of a sharp decline this week.But be careful.
There may be a quick reversal back to the upside once the total decline is over,..to wash out ALL weak hand bulls,