Please Do your DD as this is not a financial advice
The CPI report came in hotter than expected but still seems to be going down now at 8.2 from the June Peak of 9.1. I am reminded at the depths of covid how everyone was negative and bearish but the few who bought then made a lot of gains. I am still cautiously optimistic that this is a back test of the bullish megaphone structure that I posted a while ago and will be looking to see how it holds. However if it doesn't hold this trend line we could be headed for a deeper recession. Looking at the Put call ratio, the Macd, the amount of stocks under the 200 MA, we could have bottomed or nearing the bottom. Please do your own research.
nice work. Thanks for sharing. I may post bearish ideas a lot, but I'm bull side through and through.
BlackisKing
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@SPYvsGME, cool. I posted a new idea you may find very useful
SPYvsGME
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@BlackisKing, thanks. I checked it out. I was bullish to break the MAs a few weeks ago.
Now that we have broken the bearish MAs, rates made their move, they are right. Check out this video from Mark Meldrum. youtube.com/watch?v=E-5j2m1z5uE He knows rates and the bond market, repo market, etc.. He knows liquidity and he is saying rates are positioning for the "Higher for longer". No rate cuts in 2023.
That means the markets are going to test lower lows in 2023. May is what the experts I disseminate are saying and I tend to believe them over my own bias.
BlackisKing
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@SPYvsGME, so what I expect is that they cut in august. But they can stop raising as soon as next fomc if the next 2 CPIs are low enough. I have always maintained that the fed does not want inflation low for so many reason I dont want to get into right now.
SPYvsGME
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@BlackisKing, right. rates were indicating 2 cuts in the later half of 2023. What Mark is saying in the video is FFR is is coming off. There will be a rate cut if the markets crashes this year. Next year if they don't because of recession (job losses, housing market crisis, debt crises etc..).
I'm leaning crash in may. so ya. FFR is now going to say no rate cuts in 2023. Market will crash for April earnings. Fed will cut rates to recover.
BlackisKing
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@SPYvsGME, Yes I will watch the video and let you know my thoughts but I just dont see a crash due to US elections next year. If Biden wins again, then the powers that be will crash the markets because they need that for CBDC.
SPYvsGME
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@BlackisKing, There is a good chance this CPI print will blast indexes higher is what I'm trying to say.
BlackisKing
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@SPYvsGME, Yes I agree with that. Too many bears right now.