TSLA:Truncated 5th at 474 A-Bottom 382 Confirmed-3Scenarios Map

TSLA: Truncated 5th at 474 ☠️ A-Bottom 382 Confirmed – 3 Scenarios Mapped: B to 440/460 or Bust? C-Targets 287-367 + Fed Cut Catalyst Dec 9-10:

Tesla's 5-wave impulsive rally from $273 to $474.07 is officially terminated in a classic Truncated 5th Wave pattern – one of the most reliable bearish setups in Elliott Wave theory.

Key Confirmation Signals:

1. Wave ⑤ high: 474.07 = exact same price as sub-wave (i) of ③ (textbook same-price failure)
   
2. Screaming RSI bearish divergence at the top
   
3. Volume collapse + SMA20/50 death cross (Sep) → truncation locked in
   
   Current structure: ABC zigzag correction (likely Wave IV of larger cycle or Wave A of bear impulse).
   Wave A: 474.07 → 382.78 (0.786 retracement of entire impulse, Nov 14 low)
   Wave B: Now underway as platform consolidation post-hammer reversal (Nov 23 low 383.76, RSI oversold confirmed)
   －Primary target: 430-440 (0.618 Fib of A) by early Dec
   －If breakout 445: Extend to 460 (0.786 Fib, 35% odds – accelerated rally fueled by Fed doves)
   
   MACD/RSI Fuel for B-Wave:
   MACD bullish divergence emerging (-3.85 turning up) → Gold cross by Nov end
   RSI oversold hammer → Short-term bounce to 410+ expected
   
   3 Scenarios for Wave C (Post-B Top):
   | Scenario | Probability | B-Wave High | C-Wave Target | Key Condition |
   |-------------------|-------------|-----------------|-----------------|----------------------------------------|
   | **Weak B: Deep C** | 50% | 430-440 (Platform Type) | 287-293 (C=1.618×A) | B stalls at 440; Dec FOMC mild cut → Extension from 319 (1.272×A) low |
   | **Strong B: Shallow C** | 35% | 445-460 (Accelerated Rally) | 361-367 (C=1.0×A) | Break 445 on Fed fuel; Shallow due to strong rebound |
   | **Bullish Invalid: Extended ⑤** | 15% | >485 (Break Secondary Resistance) | 550-600+ (0.618 of Impulse) | Weekly close >485 negates ABC → Wave ⑤ resumes |
   
   Catalysts to Watch:
   Dec 9-10 FOMC: Expected 25bp cut (89% odds post-Williams) – Long shadow potential for B acceleration (see chart)
   Bear confirm: <380 break → C accelerates to 250 (2.0×A, high-volume 2024 low)
   Timeframe: B ends early Dec; C launches mid-Dec, bottoms Jan 2026 (4-6 weeks)
   
   
   Trade with stops:　Long B to 440 (trail below 380); Flip short at B top divergence.
   
   This is not financial advice – DYOR.