For my previous post and short term trading strategy see below:
The level which gives support at the moment has been determined a while ago based on structure in the past. Now I like to see a reversal out of this zone to support my bigger picture analysis. The leg lower has the characteristic of an impulsive wave A and should therefore present another sell opportunity once wave B is complete. However we have to keep in mind that several corrective patterns are possible. Longer term I expect a test of at least 1.270
We saw another extension lower for the USDCAD and I expect a move higher soon. We saw the first attempt to move higher. What I'm looking for in terms of confirmation is an impulse higher followed by a consolidation of lesser degree. An impulse should be strong and subdivided in 5 inner waves. The simplest approach to spot an impulse is to focus on the angle of the wave and whether or not it shows many overlaps. For those who are not sure about it have a look at my previous posts where I wrote impulse/consolidation in the chart, you will probably see it because a chart shows more than a thousand words when it comes to trading.
تعليق
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I was looking for a 3 wave pattern lower towards the high of 2009 in the 1.30 zone. However we might see this current bearish move targeting that zone. The plan is still the same, sell after minor consolidations towards this zone or in terms of a reversal wait for an impulse of lesser degree and buy after a consolidation.
updates will follow.
تعليق
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I received several question about the CAD pairs. It is extended and many indicators will show a likely reversal ahead. However I use an indicator as indication and nothing more, more often than not I don't use any indicator at all because the key data is in the chart itself. But this is dependent on how you trade of course. Nevertheless, we shouldn't be buying too soon. Nothing says the USDCAD can't turn bullish but structure and market dynamic tells me that we most likely need to test the high of 2009 first before this pair will be able to make a significant correction higher. If t turns bullish before we test that level, I simply wait for the consolidation and continuation so I won't get caught by another extension lower.
تعليق
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Watch for a consolidation and buy continuation towards 1.345. However if we see a reversal here we should be looking for a bearish impulse and sell after the consolidation. I still expect a test of the high of 2009 and a move towards 1.345 will not invalidate that scenario.
التعليقات
glaazie
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think it is forming an wedge and i also expecting it to go near the montly trendline before it wil go up
i also counted 5 waves so a break is also possible
thank for your analyses Tim your great in what you are doing !!
TimStuyts
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Very nice! Thank you
cmc
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hello, nice analyses. I have the same opinion.
newbie2016
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bro.. i think usdcad will fill its gap sooner or later.. and gap is close to 1.3345.. its a very minor gap of almost 3 to 5 pips.. that usdcad left last time before breaking 1.355 after weekend open.. we saw now usdjpy also covered its gap of 112.55.. so i think usdcad also to cover gap and then i see some consolidation and ucad towards 1.40... lets see.. so far i am long as well..
TimStuyts
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Thanks for your input. However I'm not sure what gap you referring to, could you share a screenshot because could be the data-feed of your broker. None of my brokers show a gap or I'm completely missing it. In terms of trading gaps, I agree they often will be closed fast in forex but not always (can take a while) and I don't use that as a guideline or strategy. Both USDJPY and USDCAD are showing a clear structure and I expect more downside in terms of bigger picture, although the drivers differ for each pair and I never use correlation besides analyzing fundamentals because it is alway's after the fact and says nothing about structure.
newbie2016
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I never thought to have screenshot of that gap... it was very minor and regarding brokers.. i use different brokers and at the time all were showing unfilled.. but like i said it was a minor gap... as you can see on daily chart the doji candles close to 1.334.. before moving upside.. so gap was close to it.. after weekend open and later in european session ucad taken out 1.355 resistance.. i personally was bullish at that time as well on ucad.. for now i think we will see move again towards 1.334 and i dont think 1.33 to crack easily..
TimStuyts
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By the way I appreciate your respons, it is a good way to elaborate on how I look at the market and compare different views (or confluence). Good trading to you!
Qasimshahzadgt
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hi stuytstim how are you. dear now usdcad will go up or more will go down. ??
TimStuyts
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I like to see a move up (corrective wave for a possible wave B). Then sell again. That will be my bias so if it goes down from here I have to re-evaluate but for now selling out of these levels is not what I'm looking for.
wonkytonkydonky
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ive been waiting and waiting and waiting for that B wave .. so i can enter the C :)
think it is forming an wedge and i also expecting it to go near the montly trendline before it wil go up
i also counted 5 waves so a break is also possible
thank for your analyses Tim your great in what you are doing !!