I used a pending short for the USDCAD this afternoon but was not able to post it prior to NFP. However there will be another sell trade opportunity for those that aren't short yet. I showed an indicative wave count but key is that I will be looking for a bottom around 1.275. It is unclear yet for me whether this will be a 3 wave structure or 5 wave structure. Nevertheless bigger picture I expect this bearish price action to be corrective and once we reach 1.275 area price should bottom for a test of at least 1.335.
The short in USDCAD is turning in a nice winner with a risk/reward already at 4/1 in terms of the first position. I added for the wave 5 short as mentioned in my previous post which makes this a trade of more than 10% return on capital. I start taking profit but expect a last attempt lower towards at least 1.265. However the main trade will be the buy once this consolidation of higher degree settles. I'll keep an eye on oil with 51 closing in. But in the end I trade what I see in terms of structure. Updates will follow in case we see a minor consolidation or reversal sign.
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I drew this harmonic pattern as a response to another post but I'm not trading harmonic patterns because they follow structure and don't lead them. Good trading all
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I expect USDCAD to make at least another move lower as shown by means of the wave count. However if price accelerates higher in an impulse I will wait for the consolidation and then buy the continuation. Updates will follow but for now I'm looking for another leg lower first.
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التعليقات
fOREXeCHO
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Very well done! Envying that.
edisoho
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Hi Tim, the price didnt drop below (v) even after the news release. is the wave c consider completed? or another drop is possible. thanks
TimStuyts
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For now I favor another leg lower to complete wave C. If we accelerate higher (break out of the channel) I will wait for the consolidation and look for buy's.
edisoho
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I see, thanks for ur reply
TomPower
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Tim. as a good correlation expert that you are I'm taking you would expect oil to start turning down as well.
TimStuyts
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I've updated USDCAD, EURCAD and Oil more or less at the same time. I'm still bearish for Oil and holding some of my original shorts.