I view the crude oil market as extremely oversold and ready to rally. I also see that there could have been the possibility of a coordinated action to help the price of crude oil push down going into the election. There was definitely an incentive to create a positive mood in the minds of voters heading into the election and now that that is behind us, I believe the market will have a rally to squeeze the shorts.
The softness in global demand is an issue over the past several months, so I am not necessarily looking for a new, long-term uptrend, but rather a trading rally that can move the price of oil up 15%-20% within the next 1-3 months, with the likelihood that the rally will be faster.
Look at the "yellow circle" on the chart. This is the "beach ball" being held underwater down here. It isn't easy to hold a beach ball underwater and any reduction in pressure will allow the ball to lift back up. So, since the election is over, I will presume that there are likely far fewer sellers down here and a ripping rally is likely just around the corner.
Upside is back to the 3-month highs. Risk is 3 average true ranges.
التعليقات
timwest
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This is a good enough time and place to exit this trade. If you are patient enough to wait for those few times a year when you can earn nearly 10% in a month, then you can do very well in the markets. Here's hoping some of you took this trade and either bought oil stocks, futures, wrote put options on oil or oil stocks, or something to make money from the low price of energy going into the election and year-end. Cheers to all.
timwest
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I am happy about how this position is developing. It appears to be going right on plan. The recent rally is blamed on middle-east unrest (Israel, Gaza), but when a market can go up on nervousness, then it is in good shape for further gains. We always want to get out of a position when confirming news can't make it move in our direction any more but that is not the case with Crude Oil. I hope many of you are enjoying some gains already. I am up more than 2% on my crude oil futures position.
jmtbernardo
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29 and 30 are my targets to go long.
Dopam
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You could probably say the same for the Euro. Lot of short straglers not looking at the obvious squeeze coming.