We are printing a bull flag again. I'M waiting for a breakout to 45$-46$ soon.
I see again people here at tradingview that shorting oil. Guys we are in a new bull market ! You cannot short this market in this year. You might be lucky and pick some money from the bull but most of the cases you will lose.
At least you who are reading me please don't short it. Now everybody will realize that the 27 $ oil is history. All the big funds will start to take position in oil and oil shares. If we reach the top of this intermediate cycle after few weeks we just close our position and go for long later. But I won't short this market... It will be impossible to catch the top of a starting bull market's first phase. I studied it hard in 2009 May.
The maximum pullback we can have in this flag is 42 that is the breakout level and the 200 EMA at the daily chart. If someone want to go long that's the last entry point. AFter this we are running out of time and will be more and more dangerous to short - the chance of a correction is higher from week to week.
I'M holding every position in the Energy trade. I will post there if I jump out.
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The more time we spend here between 44.5 and 42.5 the bigger the chance that it's a bull flag. More and more people will see the flag pattern...
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We are attacking the upper leg of the flag. We turned exactly where I predicted.
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Voulme is supporting the flag.
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Can we break out finally?
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Flag is broken. Want to see short coverings now at the purple and red lines...
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Purple line bears destroyed.
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... and here is the breakout after market close with the stoprun. Red line bears destroyed. Never short the oil bull !
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chartwatchers
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... and here is the breakout after market close with the stoprun.
Red line bears destroyed.
Never short the oil bull !
Trendhopper
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Totally agree with your analysis, expecting it to touch 50 within a week/ 2 weeks max, its a 3rd wave so shorting it is financial suicide, just buy on pullbacks if you aren't in the trade already, 3rd wave is usually longest wave, bearing in mind wave 1 was long (27-41) I'm expecting wave 3 to go longer (36-52) , as wave 2 was a shallow pullback i think we will see wave 4 retrace 61.8 to around 42/43 before a lovely 5th wave to 60...
chartwatchers
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Next week will give the answer if we can go to 60 or not in the next 3 weeks...
60 is a liitle bit too much for me but who knows? As many are shorting it - not impossible.
Just to let you know : some of the money we make is the top picker's (short traders' money) money...
KayJay
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Totally agree with you brother
Josef2016
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(27-41),(36-52) means days or price?
Trendhopper
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price...wave 3 should be longer than 1...wave one moved 14 dollars, so wave 3 should get to at least about 52 in my opinion (16 dollars)
Josef2016
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Thanks
gcplau
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Chartwatchers....you are very good at "Flat" I presume. Good analysis on this one! Is this idea based purely on technical or w/ certain fundamental as well? And seemed a bit contrarian too...lol.
Red line bears destroyed.
Never short the oil bull !