US oil saw a major boost after a surprise announcement from Saudi Arabia to cut production. Followed by a boost at the end of last year due to expectation of vaccine for COVID-19 to open economies and increase demand. While the outlook for oil remains unknown, OPEC+ countries show the desire for higher prices even at the cost of losing production. On the technical side we are at the important level: Coming to 200SMA and retest of the broken uptrend line signals consolidation with potential to break to the upside later. Biden's administration is still an unknown with regards to foreign policy and US relations with OPEC+ countries. Potential to look for patterns next week on smaller time frames for intraday trades, updates will follow during the week.
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تعليق
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Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts a steady rise in oil prices over the coming decade despite the current pandemic. By 2025, Brent crude is expected to reach $79 level and then $98 by 2030. An astonishing forecast by EIA suggests oil prices to reach $200 for Brent in 2050 due to cuts in production and competing energy sources. As a comparison, 2008 saw a record price of $133 before dropping to $40 in December that year and climbing back to $123 in 2011. Expectation is that after a historic fall in oil prices in 2020, we shall see an even bigger spike in the coming decades. While oil at $200 seems ridiculous for the economies to sustain, as those prices would be devastating for the average consumer, a strong competition in the energy industry and potential comeback of the developed economies after the pandemic would create a surge in oil prices.
Major level with fib level, weekly 200MA, and retested of symmetrical triangle like Antonio mentioned. I’m bearish oil short term and long term.
Antonio_trader
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@BenjamIn.society500, Oil price is manipulated by OPEC+ and other oil countries, that's the only downside when it comes to the technicals of this chart. A lot depends on the politics in the coming months and of course the pandemic. You are right that resistance is strong here, so it will take serious commitment from OPEC+ to break through.
Actor13
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Thank you! Interesting holistic analysis .... good to see such an overview of long term fundamentals.