ProShares Trust Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETFArca
الوصف
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... OGs know what's up.
تعليق
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COVID Crash 2
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Possible spike coil, unfazed even after bull run ot top of 1Y MAX time adjusted peak:
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I really don't know how valid this kind of structure is on a decaying stock like this but could provide us interesting breakout clues. If you normalize the decay, this is technically more like a RW than a FW but lets not get too meta here...
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Approaching important inflection point, bouncing off minor RSI S/R...
With all this stimulus and Fed buying, what makes you think UVXY isnt headed for some new lows. $9 or $8 ?
ProfitHarvest
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@winter44, It may, but more likely we see another spike above $15. All possible stim has been baked in since Biden was elected. Any "stim news" has no further pump effect.
kretchfoop901
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@ProfitHarvest, Completely agree. Stimulus is this markets drug addiction. It's all fun and games at first, but sooner or later a dependency develops as the effects wear off and people are going to be looking for their next fix. Reality is the drug supply is starting to run dry and no one likes dealing with a market going through withdrawal. That being said I am a little concerned about the effect of inflations as priced continue to run rampant. Just how far does the Fed want to push the issue? If Biden was serious about raising taxes to offset the country's debt I doubt adding to the debt with stimulus is high on his list of things to do. Either way they next 100 days should be fun. Lets see how this plays out.
skfmsmsvldrn
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50$.
RealmWorld
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When can we see lift-off? Is the sky clear?
WizdomSeekerr
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Aaaand... UVXY down over 4% pre-market. Same ol same brother, this will continue to go down and market go up. Get ready for a nice spike in market!
There is Biden $1.9 trillion in stimulus coming.Yellen to discuss it today. Barring a quicker unforseen Fed Rate hike, UVXY will have the usual chart dynamics. I trade this name. I sold the $9 strike puts for March on the dip to the lower end of the trading range and averaged $1.65. If the common is above $7.35 at MArch expiration I have a profit. If the unforseen spike occurs, (Volmageddon trapping the shorts February 2018, Covid MArch 2020, Iranian General etc) the common will continue to erode. UVXY is a wasting asset. Newbies to this name be aware.
The chart is always downward. Again the spike was $12 to $130 with Covid March drop in SPY and leveling off for one week at a twice average true range drop (see the weekly chart). Then SPY fell off the cliff and the UVXY leverage worked. Absent a black swan event this trends unceasingly downward. In the March 2020 case the one week leveling off gave adequate time for long put buying and credit call verticals.
In the Iranian General event I was able to buy in puts. The call position to follow the next Monday never materialized as the Iranains shot a few scuds into the sand in a remote part of an airbase housing American troops and declared victory. Volatility declined.
A rise in UVXY is always event driven. Absent drivers I sell puts that are at nearly one standard deviation down on any drop in vollatility and buy these in for a minimum of $20 per contract net gain on any range bound non twice ATR bounce. I sold these twice in the last 7 weeks and bought them back all based on the high end buying in of the contracts and the low end range bound sale of the puts on an implied volatility spike in the put premium collected in my cash secured put sale.
In the last 60 days of any option sees the fastest time decay of an option. this is where the MArch UVXY $9 puts erode the fastest. If UVXY stays above $9 I once again will buy these back cheaply at about 21 days to expiration and do it all again with the same amount of money at risk. The caution is never to exceed 90 days and always watch Proshares for the dreaded reverse split that can leave the put seller with fractional shares that trade at a very large spread - not good. Also if the puts are sold too far out then the natural erosion of value bsent a volatility driven event forces downward the common. In general volatility levels are slightly elevated now, but absent an event the common will erode - as it is designed to do.
If you give me a known direction I will figure out how to game it.
Most of the problem that charts try to divine is direction. this has a known direction with a few corrections. I get enough time to buy the calls when needed. (Volmageddon saw UVXY common trade $18 to $38 in four hours. Lots of time to buy the calls or the common).
This is a great chart but buying the calls is a counter trend wasting asset buy.
I game it as above stated.
Getting long on the chart only is not for me.
ProfitHarvest
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@Spotshooter1983, Yea the Decay Trend is key, particularly the Core Decay Trend (magenta). Price Action consistently fluctuates above and below it. Like horizontal trends on VIX but just at a downward angle.
Where there is consistency in Price Action, you can find consistency in profits ;).
I tend this garden very carefully. The only way I ever was burned was as a newbie to UVXY after decades as a trader who thought that the premium paid to me was too high relative to the price of the underlying. One reverse split and the cost to exit was $9000... Experience is what you get when you don't get paid is how the old saying goes.
I check weekly for any announced reverse splits.
I'm in great shape with time value decay working nicely in my favor as it accelerates in the last 60 days of an options contract out of the money.