It's important to check what happened at the previous FED minutes. More often than not these days were kind of reversal days. So get ready we might get our gold bottom today. I highlighte by blue boxes where we had reversal in the past at FED minutes. At these FED minutes reversals price many times tested back the lows that occured a few days before. So just prepare for a test of 1240 or maybe a test of the 240 SMA at 1230 $. As we are late in the daily cycle there will be no follow through after a spike down. I will be adding at the lower low level if there will be any.
As I'M watching the dollar the minutes release might be bearish for the dollar. We are just 3 weeks before elections. The strong dollar as bad as for today's power as the falling dollar or the falling SM. The FED needs to take care of the balance so don't get surprised if it's obvious from the minutes release that no rate hike till December and gold just rockets higher without any spike down.
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It seems it's going to be a reversal again after FED minutes. We just tested back the 20 & 50 EMA + the flag's trendline on the hourly after breaking out of the flag earlier in the night.
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Now we need to print the daily swing. That will pull in the big players. Swing level is at 1265.21$.
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Daily RSI is leaving oversold. Daily swing confirmed if we break above the Friday's high.
التعليقات
MidasTouchConsulting
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Gold - A potential bearish scenario
"Bottoms in the investment world don´t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers
"The one who wants to protect his fortune doesn´t believe in anything but plans for everything." - Amschel Mayer Rothschild
Although its way too early for confirmation I thought it´s time to lay out a theoretical bearish scenario to make sure we are prepared for everything. In this case gold would move back towards $1,025 and make new lows..!!! But let me explain:
The 330$ rally since December 2015 has seen an important high at $1,262, an important low at $1,200 and another important high at $1,375. The weakness in gold since last week´s sell off is obvious. Should gold continue to slide lower it will very likely find a bottom somewhere around $1,210 - $1,220 followed by a sharp recovery towards $1,295 - $1,300. In that case we would have most of the ingredients for a bearish head and shoulder pattern if gold fails at the strong resistance around $1,300. If gold then comes all the way back down to the $1,200 neckline the pattern will get more and more obvious. A break through $1,200 finally will confirm the pattern and activate a price target at $1,025 based on the pattern height of $175.
What would increase the odds for this theoretical bearish scenario?
- Gold below $1,220 would shift the bigger picture (see Midas Touch Model)
- Gold continues the current sell off down to the neckline around $1,200
- Gold does not move back above $1,300 within the next 1-3 months
- Gold is breaking through the neckline at $1,200 (pattern confirmation)
- Gold is moving below $1,170 (= retracement larger than 61.8% of $330)
How can we make money in this scenario?
1. Buy gold around $1,200 - $1,220 and sell into the recovery around $1,295
2. Sell gold short around $1,295 with a stopp above $1,325 and hold this short-position until $1,025...
As already stated this is a theoretical scenario and should be understood as a backup plan.
AriefBudisatria
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midas smart view
Nightstar
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Smart, but very unlikely. This is a Bull Market.. People always lose sight of the big picture when the Market corrects and scares the heck out of everyone! It's always the same story.
chartwatchers
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Agreed Nightstar. It's 0% chance that we go below 1045.
MidasTouchConsulting
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well Arpi, we both said it´s extremely unlikely that we go below $1,300 again....and booooom here we are..
In retrospective my best results times in the markets came always when I planned in all directions... and that´s the idea behind this chart... it´s a backup plan in case gold does not move quickly back above $1,300...
What about your CoT-Charts, haven´t seen them in a while. I guess Friday´s numbers will be very interesting for an update..
MidasTouchConsulting
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Short-term stochastic is bearish embedded and I guess the professionals will sell every rally toward $1,265.. we will get a bounce because gold is oversold on the daily and the weekly but I am not sure it will come immediately and I am not sure that it will take us back above $1,300. Actually the really important number is $1,325
MidasTouchConsulting
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Just to clarify. I am a goldbug too but I am not willing to risk my hard earned capital blindly.
Gold is still down nearly $700 from its all time highs. A price above $1,920 will be the only confirmation that the bull indeed is back.
Yes, it has been rising in all other currencies and yes financial system is not sustainable and yes politicians and central bankers are extremely irresponsible. But nobody knows the future and this charts clarifies that gold needs to move back above $1,300 to keep the bullish hopes alive... so far the bounce from $1,240 has been shallow and weak..
Midas.. COT numbers are often a misleading indicator when a Bear turns into a Bull. And as per your comment on price needing to be above $1920 to confirm the Bull?? That sounds a bit outlandish :/
The Bull has already been confirmed time and time again.. In fact, the entire Commodity complex started a brand new Bull Market this year! Yes, there will be corrections along the way in order to reset sentiment. An ICL is suppose to scare the crap out of everyone; this is what we're seeing right now.
Ps: We saw the same thing with Crude btw.
Nightstar
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One last thing.. If you're gonna be writing a Newsletter [and kudos to you for doing it] then you need to add Cycle Analysis and Sentiment to your repertoire, or else you run the risk of misleading your readership.
The CoT gave the best buy signal in last December/January !!
All I am saying is that I am not sure yet about new bull market.. I wish and will be happy if it is indeed one but I personally think it is still too early.. the commodity sector has been so depressed that a snapback rally had to happen.. my thesis has always been in the last 9 months that gold needs to close above $1,530 to confirm a new bull.. everything else can still just be a bear market rally.
Next couple of weeks/months will be critical... a new and young bull should push prices higher soon again. if it fails at $1,300 or doesn't even make it to this number we know that something is wrong...
If you read my newsletter you will see that I told my reader to buy into $1,262.. again I have a holistic approach and not a narrow-minded approach
Gold - A potential bearish scenario
"Bottoms in the investment world don´t end with four-year lows; they end with 10- or 15-year lows." - Jim Rogers
"The one who wants to protect his fortune doesn´t believe in anything but plans for everything." - Amschel Mayer Rothschild
Although its way too early for confirmation I thought it´s time to lay out a theoretical bearish scenario to make sure we are prepared for everything. In this case gold would move back towards $1,025 and make new lows..!!! But let me explain:
The 330$ rally since December 2015 has seen an important high at $1,262, an important low at $1,200 and another important high at $1,375. The weakness in gold since last week´s sell off is obvious. Should gold continue to slide lower it will very likely find a bottom somewhere around $1,210 - $1,220 followed by a sharp recovery towards $1,295 - $1,300. In that case we would have most of the ingredients for a bearish head and shoulder pattern if gold fails at the strong resistance around $1,300. If gold then comes all the way back down to the $1,200 neckline the pattern will get more and more obvious. A break through $1,200 finally will confirm the pattern and activate a price target at $1,025 based on the pattern height of $175.
What would increase the odds for this theoretical bearish scenario?
- Gold below $1,220 would shift the bigger picture (see Midas Touch Model)
- Gold continues the current sell off down to the neckline around $1,200
- Gold does not move back above $1,300 within the next 1-3 months
- Gold is breaking through the neckline at $1,200 (pattern confirmation)
- Gold is moving below $1,170 (= retracement larger than 61.8% of $330)
How can we make money in this scenario?
1. Buy gold around $1,200 - $1,220 and sell into the recovery around $1,295
2. Sell gold short around $1,295 with a stopp above $1,325 and hold this short-position until $1,025...
As already stated this is a theoretical scenario and should be understood as a backup plan.