Buying during Miner Capitulation yields wonderful returns.
The best buy signals occur on Hash Rate "recovery", and when price momentum is also positive.
Historically, this strategy has yielded average returns to cycle peak of >5000%, with max Drawdown of -15%.
Follow me to learn more about this indicator.
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Updated shape titles.
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Cleaned up chart/code. No technical changes.
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More chart formatting for clarity on "light" TradingView theme.
No technical changes.
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Release Notes: Update v1.1
All prior calculation logic remains unchanged.
This Update includes:
Fix of re-painting issue on live data. This stop false alerts before the daily bar has closed. On live data, yesterday’s Hash Rates will be used regardless of the Bitcoin ticker symbol you are looking at.
Addition of multi-time-frame management. This now gives you the ability to use this indicator on any time-frame (Minutely, Hourly, Daily) and always know you are looking at the Hash rate values from yesterday's close.
Enjoy!
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Added optional Hash Rate "Growth" Oscillator.
To use, change the indicator setting "Plot Type" to "Oscillator".
For more information, see my TradingView "Idea": "Miner Confusion? An Unusual State in Hash Rate Growth"
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Added "Capitulation" and "Recovery" text to plot
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Added chart "alerts" for easier notification
Added chart shape "titles"
Minor chart formatting tweaks
No calculation changes
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Added notes in code explaining how to use the "Spring" (copied below)
Added option to display raw Hash Rate
Fixed minor bug where 1 blue circle in 2012 didn't appear on the chart
The "Spring" is the confirmed Miner Capitulation period: - The 1st "gray" circle is the start of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses UNDER 2 month Hash Rate) - Last "green" circle is the end of Capitulation (1 month Hash Rate crosses OVER 2 month Hash Rate) - The "greener" the spring gets (up until blue) represents Hash Rate recovery (it is increasing) - The "blue" circle is the first instance of positive momentum following recovery of Hash Rate (1m HR > 2m HR). This is historically a rewarding place to buy with limited downside.
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Small fix for intra-day time frame management.
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Minor code tweak.
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Minor code optimization - no logic change.
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Updated projected date for the 3rd halving in May 2020.
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sourcing
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Sourcing update
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Updated script to use "Into the block" datasource given Nasdaq data hasn't updated in a month.
I notice a buy signal on both Bitstamp and Binance but not yet on BLX. I'm curious how much weight you give to the signal on exchange charts besides BLX? Binance is obviously missing a lot of BTC's historic price data and Bitsamp is missing about a year of data in 2010.