For almost 6 months Cardano has been losing its’ value to the Bitcoin. Since may price dropped by nearly 77%, while ADA/BTC moved from 4200, down to 900 satoshis. At that level, ADA found the support at 327.2% Fibonacci retracement level, applied to corrective wave up after the uptrend trendline breakout.
The support has been rejected cleanly; in fact, ADA just touched this price once on the 12th of September. Then price went up, hitting 1400 satoshis resistance area. The resistance is very strong as there are multiple technical obstacles preventing the price to go higher.
First is a upper trendline of the descending channel, second is the 50 Moving Average and third is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
On the other hand, looking at the RSI oscillator, it broke above the downtrend trendline, where it found the support afterwards. Currently it seems like the RSI is ready to move higher, although price action tells quite the opposite.
This brings indecision aspect, where either buying or selling Cardano could quite risky. For ADA to go high, daily close must be well above the 1400 satoshis level, confirmed by the heavy buying volume. And unless the resistance is broken, ADA/BTC price should drop down once again, especially considering the fact that the overall trend is down.
In the downtrend scenario, while the resistance is holding, Cardano might produce a double bottom at 900 satoshis level, and if broken, go further down towards the 322 satoshis Fibonacci support.
The EOY price will most likely depend on the next move by ADA. Price is likely to stay at the 1k satoshis by the year end, unless there will be a confirmed breakout above the current resistance. In that case, by the 1st of Jan 2019, Cardano could reach 2k satoshis and beyond.
Support:
1. 0.00000962
2. 0.00000322
Resistance:
1. 0.00001356
2. 0.00001983
3. 0.00002200