ALT Coin's Macro Perspective
تم تحديثه
Here is the ALT Coin landscape, from my perspective, as we navigate through 2022. Three things I would like to focus on are the ALT Coin Chart, as well as BTC Dominance and ETH/BTC Chart for support. Some very important things to consider from both past and future perspectives.
First, Let's take a look at the Alt Coin chart, and ill give a brief explanation as to why these are the two main scenarios from my perspective going forward. Most of the detailed explanation expands much further than just cryptocurrency and for that, I will link my two previous analyses on BTC and the Stock Market at the end of the post so the information is readily available. For this particular chart, we can see the price has tested support 6 times at this point. Since the 2020 run-up, Alts have created massive gaps in such a short amount of time and as we expand into tougher, more unpredictable times, these gaps will very likely be filled along the way.
For scenario #1 to occur, the course stays exactly where it appears to be headed at this moment. Ongoing war, FOMC meeting March 15-16 (Rate Hikes), Loss in momentum for all of Crypto and BTC, Market Cycles changing, Global Recession, and uncertainty staying intact.
For scenario #2 to occur, the narrative completely flips and all risk is mitigated. There is a cease-fire announced in Ukraine, FOMC meeting ends with no Rate Hikes, momentum picks back up because of these factors, Cycle stays intact, Global Recession is postponed until further notice, and there is less uncertainty. Meaning a time for Risk-ON assets.
Second, let's take a look at the BTC DOM chart and try to understand why it's important and can shed some light in uncertain times. Because the only thing we can be certain about today is absolute uncertainty.
Here is the BTC DOM chart which I have labeled what each touch of that infamous 40% Dominance support has done for both Alt's and BTC. The reason it is so important to see this correlation is because when BTC Solo Rallies, nearly every Alt lags behind. And even worse when BTC starts to see even the tiniest correction, Alts react even stronger downward. If you have been paying attention over the last year, you may have noticed this occurrence. As of right now most Alt's have not followed BTC on their ALT/BTC ratios. This is a classic example of a BTC Solo Pump.
Third, I would like to just touch on ETH as it is the closest Crypto that resembles anything other than just an "ALT" Coin. Even with how much ETH has grown and solidified itself in the market, it still clearly lags behind BTC, especially in BTC Solo Rallies I just talked about in the BTC DOM chart. ETH has consolidated 300 days inside this triangle and with BTC Solo Rallying, the risk to reward for ETH is not equal to BTC. If BTC Corrects, ETH will correct harder if it has been lagging behind. My point is, even the 2nd most popular Crypto can't stand on its own let alone the thousands of Alts that have gone up 1000%+ over the last two years. Many Alts never even recovered to the May highs since then and likely will be the same case for the foreseeable future.
If this has been interesting to you, I highly encourage checking out my two previous analyses on BTC and NASDAQ if you haven't already, as they will give further insight on more details across the 2022 Macro environment as we navigate the rest of the year.
As always, my analysis isn't meant to sway anyone one way or the other. This post is meant to encourage critical thought and to expand perspectives. With all of that being said, I truly appreciate the support over the last few months and will continue to push out update information. Thank you for making it this far and any comments are more than welcome down below;
First, Let's take a look at the Alt Coin chart, and ill give a brief explanation as to why these are the two main scenarios from my perspective going forward. Most of the detailed explanation expands much further than just cryptocurrency and for that, I will link my two previous analyses on BTC and the Stock Market at the end of the post so the information is readily available. For this particular chart, we can see the price has tested support 6 times at this point. Since the 2020 run-up, Alts have created massive gaps in such a short amount of time and as we expand into tougher, more unpredictable times, these gaps will very likely be filled along the way.
For scenario #1 to occur, the course stays exactly where it appears to be headed at this moment. Ongoing war, FOMC meeting March 15-16 (Rate Hikes), Loss in momentum for all of Crypto and BTC, Market Cycles changing, Global Recession, and uncertainty staying intact.
For scenario #2 to occur, the narrative completely flips and all risk is mitigated. There is a cease-fire announced in Ukraine, FOMC meeting ends with no Rate Hikes, momentum picks back up because of these factors, Cycle stays intact, Global Recession is postponed until further notice, and there is less uncertainty. Meaning a time for Risk-ON assets.
Second, let's take a look at the BTC DOM chart and try to understand why it's important and can shed some light in uncertain times. Because the only thing we can be certain about today is absolute uncertainty.
Here is the BTC DOM chart which I have labeled what each touch of that infamous 40% Dominance support has done for both Alt's and BTC. The reason it is so important to see this correlation is because when BTC Solo Rallies, nearly every Alt lags behind. And even worse when BTC starts to see even the tiniest correction, Alts react even stronger downward. If you have been paying attention over the last year, you may have noticed this occurrence. As of right now most Alt's have not followed BTC on their ALT/BTC ratios. This is a classic example of a BTC Solo Pump.
Third, I would like to just touch on ETH as it is the closest Crypto that resembles anything other than just an "ALT" Coin. Even with how much ETH has grown and solidified itself in the market, it still clearly lags behind BTC, especially in BTC Solo Rallies I just talked about in the BTC DOM chart. ETH has consolidated 300 days inside this triangle and with BTC Solo Rallying, the risk to reward for ETH is not equal to BTC. If BTC Corrects, ETH will correct harder if it has been lagging behind. My point is, even the 2nd most popular Crypto can't stand on its own let alone the thousands of Alts that have gone up 1000%+ over the last two years. Many Alts never even recovered to the May highs since then and likely will be the same case for the foreseeable future.
If this has been interesting to you, I highly encourage checking out my two previous analyses on BTC and NASDAQ if you haven't already, as they will give further insight on more details across the 2022 Macro environment as we navigate the rest of the year.
As always, my analysis isn't meant to sway anyone one way or the other. This post is meant to encourage critical thought and to expand perspectives. With all of that being said, I truly appreciate the support over the last few months and will continue to push out update information. Thank you for making it this far and any comments are more than welcome down below;
ملاحظة
With the Macro environment as it is with a weakening economy even when rates are at 0, the FED is going to find itself in a very tough spot. Pair this with the ongoing war, a threat to Taiwan by China, possible Global Recession, High Inflation, Energy prices soaring (which is possibly the most important thing to take note of here), all of this ends in the same way most likely.I think the chances of a recession have multiplied at this point and I'd wager the FED is fully aware of this. They could potentially pivot here and instead of letting it happen, they may want to cause the recession to give themselves breathing room to work with. As odd as it sounds. Since a recession comes both ways.
It is more logical to Raise Rates + Taper as you don't want a recession hitting (which it is) with Rates at 0 and QE. And they cant lower rates at 0 or even worse inject more money.
The FED causing the recession has happened before in the 1980s when the FED was headed by Volcker. Just recently Powell was asked, "Are you prepared to do what it takes to get inflation under control?" to which Powell responded, "I hope history will record that the answer to your question is Yes".
ملاحظة
Here is a perfect example of why Energy Prices soaring is very dangerous for the broader economy. And the Ongoing war in Ukraine against Russia and the threat of limiting Oil imports from Russia will keep these prices soaring for the foreseeable future.Each time there has been a significant deviation from the trend paired with high Oil prices, it has triggered a Recession. This has happened 6 times since 1970. I can only show 3 examples here because of chart limitations. We could be faced with the 7th time as the recipe for this to happen seems to be stellar at the moment.
ملاحظة
Ladies and Gentlemen, it's finally playing out! Hope you took note back then
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