AUDUSD: POTENTIAL Bear Butterfly and Cypher - A Case for LONG

٦ يوليو ٢٠١٥

You might ask, "WAITAMINNIT???? You spotted 2 POTENTIAL BEARISH patterns but you are making a case for a LONG position? What gives?'.

My answer: Yes, I'm looking LONG until the first bearish Butterfly is completed. Then I'll look short! I don't normally play the CD leg pattern completions. And in this case, although It may look like I am, I'm actually waiting to take a LONG position based on a a BAT pattern completion in a lower TF (15M TF). I call this a trigger Bat because I don't play it for target 1 and 2 since the pip potential is too small for the risk. It's ok, if you are a scalp trader which I am not. I use it as a "trigger" to go LONG on this pair for a larger move up.

WHY LONG?

History repeats itself. Over and over again! Most all technical analysis is based on past market behavior. Fractal theory is based on this fact and that the market moves in fractals. If you believe in the Fractal theory, then here you can see that we are currently in a fractal repeating pattern of one smaller degree. In addition, the bearish Cypher will complete at the .786 retracement of the previous leg down...similar to the first fractal you see here does.


CONCLUSION:
I am taking a LONG position on this pair upon completion of the "trigger BAT" on the 15M TF as I mentioned above. If I get filled on this order, I will hold my position LONG until the bearish butterfly pattern gets completed and then close out 50% of my LONG position and see how prices react at that point. If prices head back down from there, I'll go SHORT for target 1 and 2 of the bear Butterfly and then look to go LONG again for the Cypher.