Early this morning, Australia's job advertising data and inflation data dropped, signaling a change in the economy as tightening policies take effect. Currently the currency market is pricing in a 60% chance that the RBA will raise interest rates tomorrow. However, concerns about economic recession are also an issue banks need to consider at tomorrow's meeting. After keeping interest rates unchanged (4.1%) in the June meeting, a rate hike could send AUD back to around 0.6600.
Today, at 10:30 am there will be two important news that directly affects AUD :
- Cash Rate
- RBA Rate Statement
AUD/USD is gradually approaching the overbought zone on the RSI indicator. If tomorrow the bank keeps interest rates unchanged, this pair may fall back below 0.6500. Conversely, a rate hike could push the price target up to resistance at the 200-day DMA (blue)/0.6596.