AUD/USD Gains Positive Momentum Amid Global Market Dynamics

٢٢ يناير

AUD/USD Gains Positive Momentum Amid Global Market Dynamics


The Australian Dollar (AUD) is riding a wave of positive momentum during Friday's European session, extending its bullish trend from earlier in the week. A brighter sentiment in European markets and some profit-taking after a robust US dollar rally are contributing to the Aussie's upward trajectory.

Technical Analysis:

The price action tells an encouraging story, bouncing off the 0.6525 support zone, strategically located at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. This rebound, in conjunction with the Dynamic trendline, has propelled the price above the 200-day moving average. Adding to the bullish outlook, the Stochastic indicator is poised to exit the oversold condition. These combined indicators present favorable signals for a potential new bullish impulse, suggesting an upward movement in the price.

US Data Influence:

Recent data from the United States has lent support to the USD, with jobless claims declining against expectations last week. This supports the narrative of a resilient US economy, challenging the earlier market sentiment that had priced in rate cut expectations in December. The USD's strength is a crucial factor influencing global currency movements, including the AUD.

China's Economic Struggles:

On the flip side, data from China has added a layer of complexity to the global economic landscape. The fourth quarter's GDP and Retail Sales figures fell below expectations, underscoring challenges in the world's second-largest economy. This has left investors eager for more robust stimulus measures and heightened negative pressure on the Australia-proxy AUD.

Outlook and Targets:

In light of the technical indicators and the broader market dynamics, we anticipate a bullish continuation for the Australian Dollar. Our targets are set at 0.6700 and above, reflecting our optimism for sustained upward movement. However, market participants should remain vigilant, considering the ever-changing global economic landscape, and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Conclusion:

The Australian Dollar's positive momentum is a testament to the intricate interplay of global market dynamics. Technical indicators align with the bullish sentiment, while factors like USD resilience and China's economic struggles add layers of complexity. As the AUD charts a path towards higher levels, traders should stay adaptable and closely monitor evolving economic indicators for a comprehensive understanding of the currency's trajectory.



Our preference

Long positions above 0.64 with targets at 0.68 & 0.69 in extension.

٢٣ يناير

ملاحظة

Still Valid

٢٤ يناير

ملاحظة

Still valid

٢٥ يناير

تم فتح الصفقة

AUD/USD appears to be within an accumulation zone, witnessing a rebound at the $0.6525 level within the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci zone. This rebound aligns with the dynamic trendline and the 200 Moving Average. While our idea is showing promise, we await a bullish impulse to confirm the price's exit from the current range

٢ فبراير

تم فتح الصفقة

✅ STILL VALID

٦ فبراير

ملاحظة

The AUD/USD experienced a drop below the 0.6500 area in the previous session. However, today, at the opening of the European market, the price managed to gain ground against the US Dollar (USD) following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcement of maintaining its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% during February's meeting, in line with expectations. Despite this, the AUD/USD pair weakened due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, coupled with reduced commodity prices.

On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics released Retail Sales (QoQ) data, indicating improvement with a 0.3% rise in the fourth quarter compared to the previous growth of 0.2%. However, with the Australian economy facing a cost-of-living crisis, there seems to be limited room for RBA policymakers to further raise interest rates. Instead, attention now turns to when the central bank might consider reducing interest rates. Investors are eagerly awaiting RBA Governor Michele Bullock's upcoming speech on the monetary policy outlook, hoping for additional insights into the central bank's stance and potential future actions.

We are monitoring the possibility of buying the AUD at a discounted price. The stochastic indicator in the Daily timeframe is in the oversold area, and the price remains near the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

٦ فبراير

ملاحظة

✅ STILL VALID