A fakeout above 0.62 into HTF resistance may be in store
AUD/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The move reclaimed more than 70% of March’s losses, consequently drawing the pair to within reasonably close proximity of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Demand-turned supply at 0.5926/0.6062 yielded Friday, consequently exposing another layer of demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, which holds a 50.0% retracement band at 0.6271.
Though Tuesday’s movement inked in a bearish outside day setting, it means little in terms of the overall picture, generating at most a retest at 0.5926/0.6062 before heading for 0.6330/0.6245.
With reference to the RSI indicator, the value is seen making headway north of 30.00, though has yet to challenge 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Supply-turned demand at 0.6147/0.6078 continues to hold on the H4 timeframe, withstanding a number of downside attempts in recent sessions.
The foundation for a climb to 0.6314/0.6235 is still there, despite the indifferent tone out of 0.6147/0.6078. 0.6314/0.6235 is comprised of support-turned resistance at 0.6314, a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6273 and a 61.8% Fib retracement at 0.6235 (yellow).
H1 timeframe:
Since Friday, the H1 candles have been carving out a consolidation zone between the 0.62 handle and demand at 0.6034/0.6087, sited just south of the 0.61 handle. Note the 100-period SMA is also seen hovering just beneath 0.61, as of current price.
Outside of the current range, 0.63 represents resistance, encased within supply drawn from 0.6325/0.6275, whereas support beneath the aforesaid demand area can be seen in the form of the widely watched 0.60 figure.
Structures of Interest:
Range traders may seek to fade the current H1 range extremes today, in the event the limits are tested, targeting the opposing edge.
A fakeout through 0.62 could also be in store, running buy stops, testing the H4 resistance area between 0.6314/0.6235, which happens to merge with the underside of daily demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245. A test of the H4 zone, followed by a close back under 0.62 will likely entice sellers into the market.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Overwhelmed by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, the month of March scored seventeen-year lows at 0.5506 ahead of demand pencilled in from 0.5219/0.5426, before staging an impressive recovery. The move reclaimed more than 70% of March’s losses, consequently drawing the pair to within reasonably close proximity of supply fixed at 0.7029/0.6664, intersecting with a long-term trendline resistance (1.0582).
With reference to the market’s primary trend, a downtrend has been present since mid-2011.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Demand-turned supply at 0.5926/0.6062 yielded Friday, consequently exposing another layer of demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245, which holds a 50.0% retracement band at 0.6271.
Though Tuesday’s movement inked in a bearish outside day setting, it means little in terms of the overall picture, generating at most a retest at 0.5926/0.6062 before heading for 0.6330/0.6245.
With reference to the RSI indicator, the value is seen making headway north of 30.00, though has yet to challenge 50.00.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Supply-turned demand at 0.6147/0.6078 continues to hold on the H4 timeframe, withstanding a number of downside attempts in recent sessions.
The foundation for a climb to 0.6314/0.6235 is still there, despite the indifferent tone out of 0.6147/0.6078. 0.6314/0.6235 is comprised of support-turned resistance at 0.6314, a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 0.6273 and a 61.8% Fib retracement at 0.6235 (yellow).
H1 timeframe:
Since Friday, the H1 candles have been carving out a consolidation zone between the 0.62 handle and demand at 0.6034/0.6087, sited just south of the 0.61 handle. Note the 100-period SMA is also seen hovering just beneath 0.61, as of current price.
Outside of the current range, 0.63 represents resistance, encased within supply drawn from 0.6325/0.6275, whereas support beneath the aforesaid demand area can be seen in the form of the widely watched 0.60 figure.
Structures of Interest:
Range traders may seek to fade the current H1 range extremes today, in the event the limits are tested, targeting the opposing edge.
A fakeout through 0.62 could also be in store, running buy stops, testing the H4 resistance area between 0.6314/0.6235, which happens to merge with the underside of daily demand-turned supply at 0.6330/0.6245. A test of the H4 zone, followed by a close back under 0.62 will likely entice sellers into the market.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.