11/18/24 - $blde - LT buy under $3.2, going slow
تم تحديثه
11/18/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
BLDE
LT buy under $3.2, going slow
- have written extensively about this one in the past, so won't dive into details but here's the incremental
- mgmt continues to deliver solid results, turned FCF +ve already and are on track to meet MT targets
- it's in my portfolio sub $3.15 again for a 1.5% size (shares, not options - more on this below), as any risk off event possibly has this retesting $3 again or that $2.8 support, but it's already good enough value for me to begin legging in again
- so what's the way to think about math on this thing w/ such high cash balance (net cash). here's my logic.
- 12 mm "FCF" in '25 seems reasonable. and $30 mm in '26 seems reasonable too.
- let's say $25 mm in '26, and acknowledging we're basically growing FCF at some pretty good pace at that pt, a 10% discount rate would seem to give you enough wiggle room where nobody would argue (AND! assume no growth) that's... 25/0.1 = $250 mm enterprise value
- so let's further "discount" that 250 by 25% to incorporate a '25 YE target and with some (again) healthy conservatism b/c after all, this *is* a small cap and it's more of a market-related risk IMO not a biz risk, so 25%... that's $250/1.25 = $200 mm. $200 mm vs. the EV today of $135 mm is $65.
- so let's add $65 now to the market cap of $250 today... so the implied equity value on this logic at YE'25 would be $315. $315/$250 today = about 25% upside. and that 25% on today's stock price puts us near $4
- so my logic says discount ANOTHER 25% to get YE'24 target and you're basically at $3.2 today (PS - i never reverse engineer my logic! this is where it comes out).
- so buying in the sub $3.5 territory I think is good MT accumulation. Sub $3 better and anywhere in recent support territory $2.8 below is for all practical purposes a "no brainer" and i'd probably be back to a 3-5% position there.
- for now 1.5% feels comfy for a name I know well.
What do u think?
V
BLDELT buy under $3.2, going slow
- have written extensively about this one in the past, so won't dive into details but here's the incremental
- mgmt continues to deliver solid results, turned FCF +ve already and are on track to meet MT targets
- it's in my portfolio sub $3.15 again for a 1.5% size (shares, not options - more on this below), as any risk off event possibly has this retesting $3 again or that $2.8 support, but it's already good enough value for me to begin legging in again
- so what's the way to think about math on this thing w/ such high cash balance (net cash). here's my logic.
- 12 mm "FCF" in '25 seems reasonable. and $30 mm in '26 seems reasonable too.
- let's say $25 mm in '26, and acknowledging we're basically growing FCF at some pretty good pace at that pt, a 10% discount rate would seem to give you enough wiggle room where nobody would argue (AND! assume no growth) that's... 25/0.1 = $250 mm enterprise value
- so let's further "discount" that 250 by 25% to incorporate a '25 YE target and with some (again) healthy conservatism b/c after all, this *is* a small cap and it's more of a market-related risk IMO not a biz risk, so 25%... that's $250/1.25 = $200 mm. $200 mm vs. the EV today of $135 mm is $65.
- so let's add $65 now to the market cap of $250 today... so the implied equity value on this logic at YE'25 would be $315. $315/$250 today = about 25% upside. and that 25% on today's stock price puts us near $4
- so my logic says discount ANOTHER 25% to get YE'24 target and you're basically at $3.2 today (PS - i never reverse engineer my logic! this is where it comes out).
- so buying in the sub $3.5 territory I think is good MT accumulation. Sub $3 better and anywhere in recent support territory $2.8 below is for all practical purposes a "no brainer" and i'd probably be back to a 3-5% position there.
- for now 1.5% feels comfy for a name I know well.
What do u think?
V
تم فتح الصفقة
selling some may '25 $5 calls off the top here
meme move a bit too much? lol - i'll take it - but sheesh
enjoy happy post turkey day
V
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.