To there and back again
تم تحديثه
Another year another update of this dusty chart.
Last year in april, i predicted we would fall down to the 3k's and launch upwards from there and continue the journey upwards.. However, i thought it was going to get there way faster.
Now, with how long it actually took to get those new lows and comparing it to the previous beartrend of 2014. I'd say bulls are in some serious shit atm. This current pump might still take us up a good bit. maybe 6-9k.
After we top out i am expecting a very long sideways. Probably gonna be a stable coin summer. So i'd recommend to enjoy the outside for the summer of 2019, come back at the end of it and start looking for a nice opportunity to short.
Once we start bleeding. Things will get bad. And there's probably also gonna be a shitstorm of FUD floating around at the sametime. You know, "China banning bitcoin" stuff. Maybe a few of the Satoshi coins suddenly make a move? haha.
I think many are looking at 2014 beartrend as a fractal for this current one. However, something that seems to be forgotten to be accounted for is that each beartrend has been longer than the previous just as the previous bulltrends have been longer.
If the first beartrend was 6 months.
The second beartrend was 1 year.
Does it not make sense for the third beartrend to last for 1.5 to 2 years?
I think its highly likely.
Fractals being fractals they often make sort of sense on many timeframes and its often easy to get tunnelvision.
Besides, how easy would it be to just buy the first real dip like many have done now? How many just went ALL IN just now after a small pump to the 5k's?
How many will be going ALL IN this summer if this pumps up to 7-9k and manages to stay there solidly all summer?
Crypto enthusiasts love buying to early and that is a fact. Everyone is guilty of that because of our love for the technology cripples our minds.
Wake up.
Bitcoin aint ever that easy. Bitcoin trends end with despair, capitulation and utter panic OR Euphoria, FOMO and utter greediness.
Even the old timers must suffer atleast a little bit.
My lowest targets go all the way down to the 800's... Even i kinda don't believe it. But it is what is.
The good news is that once this thing bottoms out. There will probably be a year or more of a large sideways ranging market and plenty of time to enter at good prices with good concious.
That will be the time to enter and prepare for the upcoming bulltrend that should last for a good many years. It will probably be the last opportunity in crypto for a long time.
Anyways, this is not trading advice. This is just me dusting off an old chart thats done me well for many years and seeing whats up.
Last year in april, i predicted we would fall down to the 3k's and launch upwards from there and continue the journey upwards.. However, i thought it was going to get there way faster.
Now, with how long it actually took to get those new lows and comparing it to the previous beartrend of 2014. I'd say bulls are in some serious shit atm. This current pump might still take us up a good bit. maybe 6-9k.
After we top out i am expecting a very long sideways. Probably gonna be a stable coin summer. So i'd recommend to enjoy the outside for the summer of 2019, come back at the end of it and start looking for a nice opportunity to short.
Once we start bleeding. Things will get bad. And there's probably also gonna be a shitstorm of FUD floating around at the sametime. You know, "China banning bitcoin" stuff. Maybe a few of the Satoshi coins suddenly make a move? haha.
I think many are looking at 2014 beartrend as a fractal for this current one. However, something that seems to be forgotten to be accounted for is that each beartrend has been longer than the previous just as the previous bulltrends have been longer.
If the first beartrend was 6 months.
The second beartrend was 1 year.
Does it not make sense for the third beartrend to last for 1.5 to 2 years?
I think its highly likely.
Fractals being fractals they often make sort of sense on many timeframes and its often easy to get tunnelvision.
Besides, how easy would it be to just buy the first real dip like many have done now? How many just went ALL IN just now after a small pump to the 5k's?
How many will be going ALL IN this summer if this pumps up to 7-9k and manages to stay there solidly all summer?
Crypto enthusiasts love buying to early and that is a fact. Everyone is guilty of that because of our love for the technology cripples our minds.
Wake up.
Bitcoin aint ever that easy. Bitcoin trends end with despair, capitulation and utter panic OR Euphoria, FOMO and utter greediness.
Even the old timers must suffer atleast a little bit.
My lowest targets go all the way down to the 800's... Even i kinda don't believe it. But it is what is.
The good news is that once this thing bottoms out. There will probably be a year or more of a large sideways ranging market and plenty of time to enter at good prices with good concious.
That will be the time to enter and prepare for the upcoming bulltrend that should last for a good many years. It will probably be the last opportunity in crypto for a long time.
Anyways, this is not trading advice. This is just me dusting off an old chart thats done me well for many years and seeing whats up.
ملاحظة
Current compared with 2014ملاحظة
Blue and red = The Bear Case
Yellow = The bull Case
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