BTC DOMINANCE
تم تحديثه
After a Trump victory the markets are booming, a new BTC ATH pushed bitcoin dominance to new local highs of 60.6%. Now we've seen a decent retracement on the daily candle and BTC is still in price discovery. This indicates to me that we have an altcoin resurgence on our hands, returning confidence in crypto and the green light for crypto support by America is a very important to this current rally.
I could see BTC dominance dropping to 59.5% before any continuation (bottom of the trend channel) higher and that's not particularly from a BTC selloff although that is possible as a SFP, but more likely is just BTC staying where it is and altcoins making up some ground.
RSI has dropped out of the oversold zone with this daily candle, a cool off is eventually inevitable as long as price stays flat while RSI cools it's very bullish.
A lot of that altcoin move needs to be from ETH imo, with BTC @ ATH Ethereum is 72% away from ATH... A massive difference and one that should close up going into Q1 2025.
The standard process for a crypto bullmarket is:
BTC --> ETH --> LARGE CAPS
--> MID CAPS --> SMALL CAPS
So far we're clearly still in the BTC phase, keeping a close eye on the ETHBTC chart to see if the momentum shifts towards Ethereum but that doesn't seem likely until next year at the earliest.
I could see BTC dominance dropping to 59.5% before any continuation (bottom of the trend channel) higher and that's not particularly from a BTC selloff although that is possible as a SFP, but more likely is just BTC staying where it is and altcoins making up some ground.
RSI has dropped out of the oversold zone with this daily candle, a cool off is eventually inevitable as long as price stays flat while RSI cools it's very bullish.
A lot of that altcoin move needs to be from ETH imo, with BTC @ ATH Ethereum is 72% away from ATH... A massive difference and one that should close up going into Q1 2025.
The standard process for a crypto bullmarket is:
BTC --> ETH --> LARGE CAPS
--> MID CAPS --> SMALL CAPS
So far we're clearly still in the BTC phase, keeping a close eye on the ETHBTC chart to see if the momentum shifts towards Ethereum but that doesn't seem likely until next year at the earliest.
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Altcoin strength continues as dominance comes into the bullish OB/trend channel low.
Majority of this is down to ETH waking up finally, once Eth finds a price to settle some smaller caps should catch a bid before some accumulation chop I should imagine. Dips are for buying season is back.
ملاحظة
Looking like BTC has taken a back seat accumulating under 100K and giving altcoins the chance to make up some ground.
Rotations into ETH is the sensible bet as Ethereum is still way behind in terms of progress, ETHBTC has been awful for Ethereum so far this cycle but once it breaks out we should see BTC.D drop quickly.
ملاحظة
BTC.D has completely tanked since falling out of the bullish trend channel. Now at a weekly support level my thoughts run to three possible scenarios:
- BTC.D continues to fall as altcoins continue to surge, thus outpacing Bitcoin and the dominance continues to drop although the USD pair is staying relatively flat.
- BTC.D finds its footing here at weekly support and bounces by taking liquidity from alts and moving back into BTC for the next leg up keeping alts flat/ slight dip while BTC goes on to break 100k
- BTC.D bounces here but we get a market wide sell-off and alts get hit much harder that BTC as it always does in times of drawdown. Perhaps a revisit of $85,000 region with 25-40% sell-offs in altcoins .
Naturally we want to see the market move higher, however I do feel we are due a correction period in some form.
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