Bitcoin broke down from the range. Now what?
VPOOC=Value Point of Control. The level of the most transacted volume inside the range. A very important reference level after the price moves away from it outside of the range.
NVPOC-Naked POC. POC of the range that has never been tested. More important than VPOC.
The price broke out of the 3-month range (marked green) Its price boundaries are $9150-14,000. I will only consider the boundaries of the range $9150-11,200 as everything above $11,200 was bought up purely on greed and hype. So if we go by the range $9150-11200, its height is about $2000, which means that if the price breaks down from a mature range of that size it usually (but not always) goes down to its 100% extension. Therefore, $9150-2000=$7150 as a potential target for the range. For now we tested the POC of the Red range almost to the tick and the level showed a great reaction. We bounced up almost $800 points from there. The bottom of that previous Red range is $7350, so I assume the zone $7150-7350 is going to be our current Support Zone. Hard to tell say yet.
$9150 is our current resistance level. It served as support for 4 months, so now it has become a mirror level. I expect it to be tested soon. If the breakdown were real the momentum will hold and the zone won't let the price go through on the first test. However, $10,150 has also become a new NVPOC above-a very interesting reference point to test soon. So now the price will most likely stay in the range of $7150-9150. Can't say for how long, it's all approximations.
Big ranges create big trends. Therefore I expect the price to keep falling at least till $7150. Then it will most likely consolidate and rest. After that, the price will either break up and go up to test the NVPOC $10150, or it will fail at the new range and will go down to look for its fair value in the levels below. Later, I will post an article about very important concepts of market behavior and trends and balances. You will understand how I look at the market from the perspective of other participants based on the Laws of the Market.
There has been a very important change in the market after the breakdown. It is important to understand the context. If above $9150 the market was in Neutral state in long-term, neutral-bearish in mid-term and bearish in short-term, now Long- and Mid-term bias changed to bearish. Short term is still Neutral as the price went down fast and far and might be back to $9150 for a retest. If you ask why that matters, I will say that all the levels above have become automatic short orders for me, especially $9150. Of course, I trade with tight stops and 1.5% risk per trade on the account, but I will have my orders set up there soon and will try to update you on the exact numbers.
Best of luck in trading.
Please join my Free English Channel for more analytics
NVPOC-Naked POC. POC of the range that has never been tested. More important than VPOC.
The price broke out of the 3-month range (marked green) Its price boundaries are $9150-14,000. I will only consider the boundaries of the range $9150-11,200 as everything above $11,200 was bought up purely on greed and hype. So if we go by the range $9150-11200, its height is about $2000, which means that if the price breaks down from a mature range of that size it usually (but not always) goes down to its 100% extension. Therefore, $9150-2000=$7150 as a potential target for the range. For now we tested the POC of the Red range almost to the tick and the level showed a great reaction. We bounced up almost $800 points from there. The bottom of that previous Red range is $7350, so I assume the zone $7150-7350 is going to be our current Support Zone. Hard to tell say yet.
$9150 is our current resistance level. It served as support for 4 months, so now it has become a mirror level. I expect it to be tested soon. If the breakdown were real the momentum will hold and the zone won't let the price go through on the first test. However, $10,150 has also become a new NVPOC above-a very interesting reference point to test soon. So now the price will most likely stay in the range of $7150-9150. Can't say for how long, it's all approximations.
Big ranges create big trends. Therefore I expect the price to keep falling at least till $7150. Then it will most likely consolidate and rest. After that, the price will either break up and go up to test the NVPOC $10150, or it will fail at the new range and will go down to look for its fair value in the levels below. Later, I will post an article about very important concepts of market behavior and trends and balances. You will understand how I look at the market from the perspective of other participants based on the Laws of the Market.
There has been a very important change in the market after the breakdown. It is important to understand the context. If above $9150 the market was in Neutral state in long-term, neutral-bearish in mid-term and bearish in short-term, now Long- and Mid-term bias changed to bearish. Short term is still Neutral as the price went down fast and far and might be back to $9150 for a retest. If you ask why that matters, I will say that all the levels above have become automatic short orders for me, especially $9150. Of course, I trade with tight stops and 1.5% risk per trade on the account, but I will have my orders set up there soon and will try to update you on the exact numbers.
Best of luck in trading.
Please join my Free English Channel for more analytics
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