BTCCNY: You should be long by now

٣٠ سبتمبر ٢٠١٦

Earlier today I signaled it was time to go long BTCCNY once again, after booking profits from our earlier entries recently. You can see my fundamental research on BTC events and related news on chart. This is part of Tim West's approach, and a very powerful tool.

My clients are long already, you can still jump in if not in the trade, just risk half and add on either a pullback, or a breakout above 4115.84.
Stops can go under 3819.92 to be safe, and we can tighten them as we get further confirmation of the breakout here.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

١ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

١ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

Tighten the stop to 3885.

٤ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا

It looks dangerous to hold longs now due the activity in financial markets.

١١ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

Bitcoin is very illiquid lately, moving sharply out of the blue, overnight.
I was asleep and missed this sudden surge, which considerably changed the outlook.

Such a market can't really be traded, since it has no clear and predictable, or logical catalysts, which makes it very hard, neigh impossible to predict timing (outside of normal intraday behavior due to the Chinese traders' schedule), and very low volume, which makes movement erratic and sudden.

Anyone trading this, reconsider. Your time is better spent trading stocks, FX, commodities, things widely followed and actively traded by market participants. I'm refraining from posting BTC ideas from now on, I see it as a waste of my time.

If you're interested in it, you can look into buying when it falls enough, but the risk/reward of such trades is not good, since you cannot really use a stop loss, so your position size would be a complete guess, or a gamble. Now, if you disregard position sizing, and gamble on futures, etc., yes, you might make some money (but you risk losing even more when things go badly).

١١ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

Volume in chinese exchanges looks really fake to me.



We're close to resistance, despite this bullish looking bar, and volume in it is low, compared to previous trends. The starting point of a big trend has had 4000btc+ volume at kraken in the past. I'd refrain from risking money on this.

(Now, since I'm taking this determination, it might go and prove me wrong, so if you're interested in it, keep an eye on the resistance above, if we cross it and you see Kraken have bigger volume than 4000btc in a day, it might start an uptrend, but now, it's 50/50)

١٤ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

If long it's best to move stop loss up to entry, or to 4283.

١٩ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

تم إغلاق الصفقة يدويًا

Stopped in profit here, we got back in, see related ideas.

٢٢ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

"We're close to resistance, despite this bullish looking bar, and volume in it is low, compared to previous trends. The starting point of a big trend has had 4000btc+ volume at kraken in the past. I'd refrain from risking money on this.

(Now, since I'm taking this determination, it might go and prove me wrong, so if you're interested in it, keep an eye on the resistance above, if we cross it and you see Kraken have bigger volume than 4000btc in a day, it might start an uptrend, but now, it's 50/50)"

As I said, the rally got instantly retraced first, to shake everyone out.

And as I asessed my emotions about the illiquidity of bitcoin at the time, I felt an sentiment extreme in my perception of it, which in itself could constitute a self-contrarian signal: "I feel compelled to ignore this, frustrated, due to the illiquid nature of BTC lately, I don't feel like checking it for a while...this means it's about to become interesting again, making ME look like a fool".}

That is, if I followed my emotions. I then looked at it, and focused on a long entry, which we got and I posted, despite this emotional moment.

It's ok to have emotions, they are even useful, if we realize we're having an emotional extreme, as a reaction to market conditions, prices, loss, profit, etc.
We just have to realize in time, and act, agianst our emotions! Look how well it worked.

The difficult part is, self asessesment of emotions, objectively recognizing them, and acting systematically against them.

(the trading system I use, contemplates this phenomenon, not only the market participants sentiment as a whole can be leveraged as a contrarian indicator, but our very own most primal impulses, can be an indication of the events to come, since all other participants are feeling these feelings as well, when they are so pure)

If you have questions let me know, and I hope you followed my advices, despite my emotions, and went long with me in the follow up post.


Cheers!