BTC RISING WEDGE (still BULLISH)
Characteristics of Rising Wedge
-Price trend -- Can be any direction leading to the pattern.
-Shape-- A narrowing and rising triangle shape.
-Trendlines- Price bounces between two up-sloping and converging trendlines.
-Touches- Price should touch (at a minor high or minor low) each trendline at least 5 times to outline a good pattern. That's 3 touches of one trendline and 2 of the opposite.
-Volume trend- Trends downward 79% of the time until the breakout.
-Breakout-Can be in any direction but is downward 60/40% (down/up).
-Upward breakouts often show weakness approximately 2 weeks after the breakout. This can look like a back test of the break out.
1) BTC forming a Rising Wedge
(you can see this well on daily and weekly.
Characteristics of Rising Wedge
40% of the time it breaks up
60% of the time down
-if up - avg breakout is 63-67% of the way
2) Length of top white trendline (487 days)
-Average upward break out occurs 67% of way through rising wedge.
-67% of the way is day 327.
3) Purple trendline seen in 03/2020 to 10/2020 looks like the same purple trendline from 03/2021 to now.
In 2020 it acted as support when BTC back tested it in the exact same way during Aug 31 to Sept 14.
4) Up breakout target formula
breakout point + (high point -low point) *(breakout points percentage)
i.e. 69k + (69k - 29k) * .67 = 96k
depending on specifics better guess is 90-110k
5) weakness approximately 2 weeks after the breakout. (careful as it often looks like back test of break out but this time it may fall through and start bear market.
-Timing syncs well with inflation tapering, etc.
Not FINANCIAL ADVICE. NOT A PROFESSIONAL TRADER. I JUST LIKE CHARTS :)
-Price trend -- Can be any direction leading to the pattern.
-Shape-- A narrowing and rising triangle shape.
-Trendlines- Price bounces between two up-sloping and converging trendlines.
-Touches- Price should touch (at a minor high or minor low) each trendline at least 5 times to outline a good pattern. That's 3 touches of one trendline and 2 of the opposite.
-Volume trend- Trends downward 79% of the time until the breakout.
-Breakout-Can be in any direction but is downward 60/40% (down/up).
-Upward breakouts often show weakness approximately 2 weeks after the breakout. This can look like a back test of the break out.
1) BTC forming a Rising Wedge
(you can see this well on daily and weekly.
Characteristics of Rising Wedge
40% of the time it breaks up
60% of the time down
-if up - avg breakout is 63-67% of the way
2) Length of top white trendline (487 days)
-Average upward break out occurs 67% of way through rising wedge.
-67% of the way is day 327.
3) Purple trendline seen in 03/2020 to 10/2020 looks like the same purple trendline from 03/2021 to now.
In 2020 it acted as support when BTC back tested it in the exact same way during Aug 31 to Sept 14.
4) Up breakout target formula
breakout point + (high point -low point) *(breakout points percentage)
i.e. 69k + (69k - 29k) * .67 = 96k
depending on specifics better guess is 90-110k
5) weakness approximately 2 weeks after the breakout. (careful as it often looks like back test of break out but this time it may fall through and start bear market.
-Timing syncs well with inflation tapering, etc.
Not FINANCIAL ADVICE. NOT A PROFESSIONAL TRADER. I JUST LIKE CHARTS :)
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