9/28 Huge trend reversal. Bullish on crypto.

٢٨ سبتمبر

Overview:
Both the SPY and QQQ closed with red candles, yet neither index dropped below the previous day's low. This, coupled with low trading volume, suggests the current price levels may hold for a while. Both indices display bearish divergences on the MACD histogram and lines, signaling potential weakness.
The Federal Reserve reported August’s core PCE at 2.7% y-o-y, aligning with expectations and slightly up from July's 2.6%. Speculation surrounds whether rate cuts are fueling inflation, though typically, it takes months for such measures to impact the economy. Next year’s CPI and PPI readings will be crucial.
ETF funds have been on a buying spree for seven consecutive days, with September 27th seeing record-high volumes—five times the average.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis:
W: BTCUSD remains above the Bollinger Bands’ MA, in line with the yearly bull-run volume point of control. After two months of bearish sentiment, signs of a trend reversal are emerging. Resistance is at 67.5k. Bullish.
D: BTC broke above $64 k on Thursday and has held above this key level. However, RSI is now at 66.57, approaching overbought territory.
4h: RSI is overbought at 73.28, showing a double peak. MACD’s bearish crossover suggests a pullback to support levels at 65.2k or 64.4k. We expect either a pullback or sideways trading, allowing the MA to catch up. Bearish to neutral.
1h: The lower timeframes indicate BTC is undergoing a correction phase. Neutral.

Altcoins Relative to BTC:
No major divergences are observed. Unlike BTC, ETH and SOL have yet to reach their previous August 25th highs. Newer alts like SUI, TAO, and NEAR have surpassed their highs, showing strong performance.

Bullish Scenario:
With BTC holding above 64K on the weekly chart, a bullish outlook is more plausible. Global rate cuts may inject liquidity into speculative assets, boosting crypto prices.

Bearish Scenario:
There’s a risk that the current rally is a bull trap, with a potential sharp reversal.

Fear and Greed Index:
The index is at 56.67, nearing the “greedy” zone, indicating growing optimism.

Prediction:
BTC may correct to $64 k before resuming its rally, with the next target being 67k.

Opportunities:
Bearish: BNB is at monthly resistance, with MACD bearish divergence. NEAR, RNDR, TAO, FTM, and UNI have hit weekly resistance levels, suggesting potential trend reversals. FTM and UNI still haven’t completed their corrections, and MACD divergences may appear over the weekend.
Bullish: AR has rebounded from its weekly support level, indicating a strong recovery.