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Focus Shifts to Inflation Data: June CPI, PPI, and Jobless Claim
Following a week of significant employment reports, the focus this week shifts back to inflation data, specifically with the release of the U.S. June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, followed by the Producer Price Index the following day.
Investors will be closely observing any declines in inflation that could provide justification for the U.S. central bank to reconsider its plan of raising interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). This return to a more hawkish monetary stance would come after the Federal Reserve paused rate hikes last month for the first time in over a year. The Fed's approach has helped reduce the CPI from 9% in August 2022 to a reading of 4% in May. However, concerns have arisen recently about the potential for an excessive tightening that could push the economy into a severe recession.
CPI
On Wednesday, analysts closely watching U.S. monetary policy will pay attention to the release of the June CPI by the Labor Department. The CPI has been gradually decreasing since reaching its peak last year. Economists generally anticipate that the June index will dip into the mid 3% range, although Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at foreign exchange market maker Oanda, suggested in a note on Monday that it could potentially drop to 2.8%. Moya also pointed out that core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs, might remain elevated due to the high costs in the housing market. He stated, "Pricing pressures might persist throughout the summer."
PPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures price changes at the wholesale level, often serves as an early indicator of future consumer price changes. In May, the PPI declined by 1.1% on an annual basis, surpassing expectations for a 1.5% decrease and significantly lower than the previous month's reading of 2.3%. The consensus for June is a 0.4% reading.
Jobless Claims
Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department will announce jobless claims for the week ending July 8. Recent job data has provided somewhat mixed views on the state of the job market. The ADP report from last week indicated that businesses added nearly half a million private sector jobs, more than double economists' forecasts. These unexpectedly robust results supported the notion that the Fed could continue with its aggressive approach to managing inflation. A strong job market typically suggests economic expansion, which often leads to higher prices. However, there was a slight, albeit unexpected, increase in jobless claims on the same day, and the nonfarm jobs report later in the week showed modest growth, adding complexity to the overall economic outlook.
BTCUSD SELL 30500 - 30800 💯💯
✅ TP1: 30200
✅ TP2: 29900
✅ TP3: 29600
🛑 SL: 31100
Investors will be closely observing any declines in inflation that could provide justification for the U.S. central bank to reconsider its plan of raising interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). This return to a more hawkish monetary stance would come after the Federal Reserve paused rate hikes last month for the first time in over a year. The Fed's approach has helped reduce the CPI from 9% in August 2022 to a reading of 4% in May. However, concerns have arisen recently about the potential for an excessive tightening that could push the economy into a severe recession.
CPI
On Wednesday, analysts closely watching U.S. monetary policy will pay attention to the release of the June CPI by the Labor Department. The CPI has been gradually decreasing since reaching its peak last year. Economists generally anticipate that the June index will dip into the mid 3% range, although Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at foreign exchange market maker Oanda, suggested in a note on Monday that it could potentially drop to 2.8%. Moya also pointed out that core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy costs, might remain elevated due to the high costs in the housing market. He stated, "Pricing pressures might persist throughout the summer."
PPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures price changes at the wholesale level, often serves as an early indicator of future consumer price changes. In May, the PPI declined by 1.1% on an annual basis, surpassing expectations for a 1.5% decrease and significantly lower than the previous month's reading of 2.3%. The consensus for June is a 0.4% reading.
Jobless Claims
Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department will announce jobless claims for the week ending July 8. Recent job data has provided somewhat mixed views on the state of the job market. The ADP report from last week indicated that businesses added nearly half a million private sector jobs, more than double economists' forecasts. These unexpectedly robust results supported the notion that the Fed could continue with its aggressive approach to managing inflation. A strong job market typically suggests economic expansion, which often leads to higher prices. However, there was a slight, albeit unexpected, increase in jobless claims on the same day, and the nonfarm jobs report later in the week showed modest growth, adding complexity to the overall economic outlook.
BTCUSD SELL 30500 - 30800 💯💯✅ TP1: 30200
✅ TP2: 29900
✅ TP3: 29600
🛑 SL: 31100
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