Bitcoin on Black Friday (second part)

٢٤ نوفمبر ٢٠٢١

Hello.
I'm doing another Bitcoin analysis, complementing the first one (or correcting if that's the case).
Now I'm trying to be more simplistic and objective, considering the most recent scenario, and discarding some indicators that say the same thing.

1. Graphical analysis

High Channel
The price is testing the support line.
Now might be a good time to buy.

Moving average of 9-week lows
The price has been above this average since July 9, 2021, and now it's enough to test it for the second time.
My prediction is that it touches the mean and pulls back up.

Volume
Strong volume can indicate a top or bottom.
Volume is low at the moment, which makes it clear that we have not reached the top as the market is making no effort to move the price.
So a new historic high is yet to be discovered.

Fib Time Zone
Plotting the Fib Time Zone, considering the last bottom in March/2020 and the penultimate top in April/2021, we are exactly in the 0.382 zone.
If you consider a new cycle, we have a milestone date on 10/January/2022 at 0.5, and then 0.618 on 21/February/2022.
Fibo 1 ends on 25/July/2022, but until then there's a lot to roll.
What I think is important now is the next 3 months until February.
I believe that after that we will have the crypto winter.

2. On-Chain Analysis

Price Drawdown from ATH
The percent drawdown of the asset's price from the previous all-time high.
When the value is equal to zero, we have no drawdown.
When it is less than zero we have a drawdown multiplied by 100 (percentage).
This is always considering the last historic high.

When the indicator hits the top several times at zero value, it indicates a lot of profit taking.
And when it reaches a value less than -0.50, it indicates a lot of loss taking (a huge drawdown).
Since nothing lasts forever, either for good or for bad, this indicator serves to demonstrate the exhaustion of both sides, bulls and bears alike.

If we look at the historic highs of December\2017 and March\2021, we can assume that we are looking for a new historic high and more profits.

Total Transaction Fees
The total amount of fees paid to miners. Issued (minted) coins are not included.
High fees mean paying to perform a transaction at any cost!
So far we don't have an indication that the world will end up looking around here, so for now the scenario is bullish.

Hope this helps in some way.
Greetings.