Bitcoin: A Daily Perspective 1D (May 15)

١٤ مايو ٢٠٢٠

X Force Global Analysis:


We zoom out from our previous hourly chart, moving on to the daily. On the daily chart, we start spotting more bearish evidence that was harder to spot on the shorter time frames.

Analysis

- We can first spot two significant trend lines: the ascending and descending trend lines that function as support and resistance
- Bitcoin is currently looking to test previous local highs at 10K levels
- Despite the big correction from our previous local high, we have not seen a further corrective trend
- Instead, we bounced on the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) Ribbon
- As anticipated from our previous analysis, we saw a 40% increase in prices after the EMA Ribbon golden cross
- While a death cross of the EMA Ribbon could confirm a bear trend, there are currently no signs of convergences
- Also referring to the envelope indicator, we have previously mentioned that Bitcoin was overextended and overbought, due to prices having broken through the upper envelope resistance
- However, during the correction, prices retraced, testing the middle of the envelope (the 20 SMA, Simple Moving Average)
- We are currently seeing prices attempt to test and possibly even break out of the upper envelope resistance once again
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a trend reversal, looking to create an uptrend again
- However, the RSI is currently facing a support-turned-resistance trendline
- The RSI is also reaching overbought regions on the daily
- While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing decreasing bearish histograms, we have not seen a clear golden cross yet
- As many false signals provided by potential crosses in the past, it would be hasty to confirm a bullish trend solely based on a potential golden cross


Market Sentiment:

The market sentiment is extremely bullish, with long short ratios at 73 to 27.


What We Believe

As previously mentioned, while a break and close above 10K levels would confirm the start of a new bullish rally, we are not convinced yet of a bull run. Bearish evidence still remains, as well as a probable scenario for a correction.

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