🚀 Bitcoin ~ Nail Biter

٦ مايو ٢٠٢٢

The FOMC reaction led to a “more of the same” scenario. With price bull ripping into daily 21/2h 200 EMA dynamic resistance resetting the technicals prior to a dramatic bear dip. Resulting in the anticipated weekly (swing low 34.3K to swing high 48.3K) 88.6% Fib retracement realization at 35.9K. The Bulls have lost the tertiary 3 day higher low and now only maintain a Weekly and Monthly uptrend. The Bears have full control of all other timeframes. The Bulls now have permission to start biting their fingernails.

Price is now threating the 34.3K weekly higher low and monthly 33K higher low with plenty of bear RSI runway as price remains not oversold on the 12h and higher timeframes. Price now needs to print a local low between the 88.6% retracement at 35.9K and the weekly higher low support at 34.3K which will likely lead to yet another shallow bounce. If the oversold bounce fails to realize the 2h 200 EMA that would demonstrate bearish price acceleration increasing the chances we are going to weekly lower lows. If price is able to challenge higher timeframe dynamic resistance levels, such as the 4h 200 EMA, that would help increase the chance that the Weekly and Monthly support levels may hold support.

Personally, I am keeping things simple and only looking to trade in one direction while price remains in a very strong down trend. I will continue to short relevant dynamic resistance levels and close the lows to hedge my longs and book as many short reps at possible. At this point I would need to see macro (daily) dramatic oversold conditions, super stack oversold (simultaneous daily, 4h, hourly, & 15m) or clear midterm time frame signs of a trend change (a series of higher lows and higher highs) prior to averaging down my red longs.

I wish all my “frenemies” good luck trading tomorrow!

CHART KEY:
Monthly levels in Orange
Weekly levels in Yellow marked with Yellow arrows
3D higher lows in White marked with White Arrows
88.6% retracement level in purple marked with Purple Arrow