🚀 Bitcoin Bears Close to Confirming Monthly Double Top

٢٧ فبراير ٢٠٢٣

Hello! I am enTHUZed an educator specializing in the Strength Trading System.

🚀 With two days left in the month BTC is at risk of printing a monthly double top at 25.2K. Daily price action ground the highs from February 16th to 21st and failed to closed above the prior August 2022 monthly lower high. Consolidation remains healthy as we remain “cautious bulls” with BTC finding dynamic support at the 4h 200 EMA. BTC remains in a weekly uptrend and has yet to confirm a daily downtrend. If price breaks the monthly lower high with follow though it will likely seek the monthly 21 EMA and weekly 38% retracement around 28K. If price prints a daily lower high then confirms a daily downtrend we will be watching the weekly higher low & daily 200 EMA dynamic support level around 21.4 K. A loss of this level would confirm the first weekly downtrend since November of 2022 and bring the question of bear market lows back into the conversation.

✅IMO: Due to the size of this 4h bounce and current lack of price discovery pivots it is more likely BTC will print a daily lower high on the 12h treading range at a bearish retracement level (between the 38-50% FIB) prior to confirming a daily downtrend. On this first push up the least likely scenario is a 4h “V” shaped recovery to monthly higher highs.
We need to keep in mind the technicals have never been less relevant than over the last 12 months of trading and retail perception of fundamental news has resulted in “whipsaw” bull rips & bear dips lacking 3-point trade checklist high probability trades for those that are technically inclined. “Headline” trading has dominated the market for quite some time.
On the macro: We have witnessed an unprecedented parabolic short squeeze off the lows which I have coined as a “Bull Swan Event”. In this move price Bull Ripped in an unsustainable fashion taking very little time to consolidate. It is a red flag for the bulls that price has been unable to close to monthly higher highs.

☑️ Personally: I am finding the most clarity on the 4h and 12h timeframes. My original trade game plan was to long the 4h 200 EMA support zone on the second price discovery pivot and target 12h lower highs. Due to the size of the 4h bounce and lack of price discovery pivots that trade game plan has now changed. I will now be scouting 4-12h bearishly divergent lower highs to average up and enter new short positions. As we get more information my trade game plan may again change. If I were to participate on the mid-term long side (4h) the following are my picks:
1. Most bullish 50X tickers: DOT, EOS, MATIC.
2. Most bullish 25X tickers: DASH, FIL, ICP.

📍 Simple Bull Statement: If BTC can print a weekly higher low above 21.4K and close above the monthly 25.2K lower high the odds of the bear market low being set for this financial cycle increase.

📍 Simple Bear Statement: If BTC fails to hold a weekly bullish retracement level during this weekly consolidation above 21.4K bear market lows are back in the conversation.

👉 It is important to note:
1. Recent data suggests inflation may be back on the rise.
2. The DXY has confirmed a daily uptrend and is currently challenging the weekly lower high at 105.35. Confirmation of a weekly uptrend would increase bearish pressure on traditional market indices & cryptocurrencies.
3. The NAS100 & SPX500 have both confirmed daily downtrends for the first time since December 2022 and have begun weekly consolidation. Confirmation of weekly downtrends would put bear market lower lows back in the conversation.

*️⃣ Make your own trade decisions, I am only an educator on the Strength Trading System