Bitcoin and the Moon - a study of the Eclipse
تم تحديثه
With the 'super blood wolf moon' tonight, I decided to take a dive into whether or not there was any pattern to be found between lunar and solar eclipses and bitcoin .
Chart Key
Solar Eclipses from strongest to weakest;
Total: bright yellow
Annular/hybrid: light yellow
Partial: burnt ochre
Lunar Eclipses from strongest to weakest;
Total: red-pink
Partial: light pink
Penumbral: light grey
Patterns noticed;
1) There is a cyclic action of sets of eclipses that alternates between 2 cycle types roughly every 2 years (slightly less), with a few distinct properties each. Solar cycles begin with a solar eclipse followed by a paired lunar eclipse, end with a solar eclipse preceded by a paired lunar eclipse, and contain every weak (non-total) lunar eclipse. Lunar cycles similarly begin with a lunar eclipse followed by a paired solar eclipse, end with a lunar eclipse preceded by a paired solar eclipse, and contain every total (blood moon) lunar eclipse.
2) As of tonight, Bitcoin has lived through the entirety of 4 of these cycles - the '12/'13 solar cycle, the '14/15 lunar cycle, the '16/'17 solar cycle, and now the 2018 lunar cycle. So far, both solar cycles contained the lion's share of both of Bitcoin's major bull markets to date, and both lunar cycles have borne the brunt of both of Bitcoin's major bear markets to date.
3) In the roughly 6 month interem between each of these cycles ( Bitcoin has experienced 4 of these interems and is entering a 5th now) Bitcoin experienced strong price appreciation in the first part, then a partial correction in the final part - of every one.
4) Most eclipses are paired with another of the opposite type - one solar with one lunar, always separated by a handful of days. There are, however, rare occurences of triple eclipse pairs - so far BTC had one in April 2013 and one in July 2018. The '18 one is vastly less pronounced, but it is notable that so far both triple eclipses have seen bitcoin experience a sharp rise approaching the triple eclipse, and a sharp fall afterwards.
5) Total solar eclipses have much less of a tangible pattern than do total lunar eclipses, appearing in both solar cycles and lunar cycles. So far however, 0 of the 5 total solar eclipses Bitcoin has lived through have seen it depreciate in price in the 5.5 months or so between the total solar eclipse and the next solar eclipse - 4 times it gained value, and one time it remained flat.
These are just potential patterns I've noticed so far - be mindful of the Rule of Three; "A pattern can be called a pattern only if it has been applied to a real world solution at least three times."
So far, Bitcoin has only experienced 2 bull markets, 2 bear markets, 2 solar cycles, 2 lunar cycles. At 2 times, a pattern can be hypothesized, but it is not complete until it experiences its 3rd.
With that said, my hypothesis (especially when combined with other data points, such as the fact that our current bear cycle is exactly the length of the previous bear cycle as of this week, that we have broken just below the .786 fib retracement of the previous bull run just like we did at the very end of the 2014 bear, and some very in depth analysis of bitcoin transactions showing that there is a regular cycle of bitcoin holders that are currently well into the hold and accumulate phase of the cycle, research done by delphi digital ) is, very cautiously, that we are today at the end of the 2018 bear cycle, have found our low, and are in for a full 2 years of bull market.
Please chime in if you notice any other potential patterns here!
Eclipse Predictions by Fred Espenak, NASA's GSFC - found here - eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse.ht...
Chart Key
Solar Eclipses from strongest to weakest;
Total: bright yellow
Annular/hybrid: light yellow
Partial: burnt ochre
Lunar Eclipses from strongest to weakest;
Total: red-pink
Partial: light pink
Penumbral: light grey
Patterns noticed;
1) There is a cyclic action of sets of eclipses that alternates between 2 cycle types roughly every 2 years (slightly less), with a few distinct properties each. Solar cycles begin with a solar eclipse followed by a paired lunar eclipse, end with a solar eclipse preceded by a paired lunar eclipse, and contain every weak (non-total) lunar eclipse. Lunar cycles similarly begin with a lunar eclipse followed by a paired solar eclipse, end with a lunar eclipse preceded by a paired solar eclipse, and contain every total (blood moon) lunar eclipse.
2) As of tonight, Bitcoin has lived through the entirety of 4 of these cycles - the '12/'13 solar cycle, the '14/15 lunar cycle, the '16/'17 solar cycle, and now the 2018 lunar cycle. So far, both solar cycles contained the lion's share of both of Bitcoin's major bull markets to date, and both lunar cycles have borne the brunt of both of Bitcoin's major bear markets to date.
3) In the roughly 6 month interem between each of these cycles ( Bitcoin has experienced 4 of these interems and is entering a 5th now) Bitcoin experienced strong price appreciation in the first part, then a partial correction in the final part - of every one.
4) Most eclipses are paired with another of the opposite type - one solar with one lunar, always separated by a handful of days. There are, however, rare occurences of triple eclipse pairs - so far BTC had one in April 2013 and one in July 2018. The '18 one is vastly less pronounced, but it is notable that so far both triple eclipses have seen bitcoin experience a sharp rise approaching the triple eclipse, and a sharp fall afterwards.
5) Total solar eclipses have much less of a tangible pattern than do total lunar eclipses, appearing in both solar cycles and lunar cycles. So far however, 0 of the 5 total solar eclipses Bitcoin has lived through have seen it depreciate in price in the 5.5 months or so between the total solar eclipse and the next solar eclipse - 4 times it gained value, and one time it remained flat.
These are just potential patterns I've noticed so far - be mindful of the Rule of Three; "A pattern can be called a pattern only if it has been applied to a real world solution at least three times."
So far, Bitcoin has only experienced 2 bull markets, 2 bear markets, 2 solar cycles, 2 lunar cycles. At 2 times, a pattern can be hypothesized, but it is not complete until it experiences its 3rd.
With that said, my hypothesis (especially when combined with other data points, such as the fact that our current bear cycle is exactly the length of the previous bear cycle as of this week, that we have broken just below the .786 fib retracement of the previous bull run just like we did at the very end of the 2014 bear, and some very in depth analysis of bitcoin transactions showing that there is a regular cycle of bitcoin holders that are currently well into the hold and accumulate phase of the cycle, research done by delphi digital ) is, very cautiously, that we are today at the end of the 2018 bear cycle, have found our low, and are in for a full 2 years of bull market.
Please chime in if you notice any other potential patterns here!
Eclipse Predictions by Fred Espenak, NASA's GSFC - found here - eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse.ht...
ملاحظة
Chart looks weird if you don't have the sidebar open :P
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